Elliott Waves
April 2, 2009
In the short run, the Elliott Wave is apparently still positive on stocks. In recent alerts, EWFF has written:
"The implication of this structure is that the
stock market will rally for several months, as prices work higher to complete an upward correction of Primary degree ...
a longer-term push-back to 10,000 is now unfolding."
And it has warned: "Traders need to orient themselves towards
upwards surprises ."
Most recently, EWWF seemed to be gaining in confidence. It wrote, in its native Elliott-speak:
"Any short-term pullback should encounter support in the 765-776 range [on the S&P 500 Index. (SPX:S&P 500 Index,
Last: 811.08), which includes the previous upper channel line, and lead to another rally leg
that carries prices higher for several weeks, at the least. The only thing that might derail this picture is a deep drop back ..."
The problem is Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist, which is much more general and long term.
Long term, it's snarlingly bearish. Prechter wrote recently:
"Those calling for either the stock market or oil to resume its new bull market are ignoring evidence from Elliott wave channels that
a bull market of Supercycle degree is over. Although most people believe that the Fed and the government possess unlimited inflationary power, which would drive both of these markets to the stratosphere, I prefer to heed the lessons from wave forms ... "
He went on ominously: "This quarter is the 9-year anniversary of the peak of wave V [an Elliott concept] in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Last: 7,761.60). So, based on our projections,
the bear market is more than halfway done in time. It is less than halfway done in price, however, as the steepest portions of the decline lie ahead." 
The steepest portions of the declines (gulp) ... lie ahead?
To give some idea of the
devastating deflationary downdraft that Prechter is anticipating: he says elsewhere that "when these markets break below the lower lines of their respective channels -- currently
around $20/ barrel in crude oil and at 3000-4000 in the DJIA -- they might rally enough to meet those lines again. But they will not penetrate them on the upside."
One paradoxical feature: Prechter also argues that
Treasury bonds are "building a historic top." "T-bond prices have been going up for 28 years, since 1981, when the rate of inflation peaked," he writes.
He continues: "Although it has made sense for Treasury bonds to fall in yield in the initial phase of this deflationary period, record spending by the government in recent months along with sentiment readings reflecting extreme optimism toward T-bonds suggest higher interest rates ahead, no matter what the Fed does."
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Bei Prechters Meinung zum Öl habe ich meine Probleme:
Seine ca. $20/ barrel in crude oil angesichts schwieriger werdender Ölfördersituationen halte ich für fundamental schwer verständlich. Die allmählich immer deutlicher werdende Knappheit bzw. Endlichkeit des Öls sollte sich in einem immer stärker steigenden Ölpreis bemerkbar machen. Die wichtige Frage: Wann genau - in 1-2 Jahren, in 5, 10 oder noch mehr Jahren?
Prechters Langfrist-Interpretation des Aktien-Tops in 2000 als (V) im Supercycle ist unter Elliott-Experten umstritten. Falls es nur eine (III) war, dann ginge es doch noch einmal langfristig rauf.
Aber, so wie die Dinge sich derzeit entwickeln, neige ich allmählich zu Prechter's Langfristinterpretation, nach der die langfristige Aktienwertentwicklung klar nach unten geht und niemals (!!!) je wieder die alten Tops gesehen werden.
Außerdem meinen so viele andere Analysten, dass es nun rauf gehen müsse... 
