US Frühindikatoren
für Februar 2006: Die Frühindikatoren sind
um 0,2 % gesunken . Erwartet wurde ein Minus von 0,3 % nach zuvor noch +0,5 % (revidiert von +1,1 %).
für März 2006: Die Frühindikatoren sind
um 0,1 % gesunken . Erwartet wurden 0,0 bis +0,1 % nach zuvor noch -0,5 % (revidiert von -0,2 %).
für April 2006: Die Frühindikatoren sind
um 0,1 % gefallen . Erwartet wurde ein Anstieg um 0,1 bis 0,2 % nach zuvor +0,4 % (revidiert von -0,1 %).
für Mai 2006: Die Frühindikatoren sind
um 0,6 % gesunken . Erwartet wurde ein Rückgang um 0,5 bis 0,6 % nach zuvor -0,1 %.
für Juni 2006: Die Frühindikatoren sind
um 0,1 % gestiegen . Erwartet wurde ein Anstieg um 0,2 % nach zuvor -0,6 %.
für Juli 2006: Die Frühindikatoren sind
um 0,1 % zurückgegangen . Erwartet wurde hingegen ein erneuter Anstieg um 0,1 % nach +0,1 % im Juni.
für August 2006: Die Frühindikatoren sind
um 0,2 % gesunken . Erwartet wurde ein Rückgang um 0,2 bis 0,3 % nach zuvor bereits -0,2 % (revidiert von -0,1 %). (veröffentlicht Donnerstag, 21.09.2006)
S&P 500:
Quelle:
http://www.martincapital.com/econ_cyc.htm#lead_ind
Thursday, September 21, 2006
http://www.conference-board.org/econ...tput.cfm?cid=1
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent and the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in August.
The leading index decreased again in August.
From February to August, the leading index fell by 0.6 percent (a -1.2 percent annual rate). The leading index has declined in 5 of the last 8 months. Weaknesses and strengths among the leading indicators have been fairly balanced in recent months, resulting in a trend that is more flat than declining.
Weakening housing permits and consumer expectations made the largest negative contributions to the leading index from February to August, offsetting significant positive contributions from average weekly hours in manufacturing and vendor performance.
The coincident index rose slightly in August. This measure of current economic activity has been increasing consistently since September 2005, although the pace moderated slightly in recent months. From February to August, the coincident index grew 1.1 percent (a 2.1 percent annual rate), and the strengths (especially in employment and production) continued to be more widespread than weaknesses in recent months.
The leading index has fallen below its most recent high reached in January, but it was still 0.4 percent above its year ago level in August. At the same time, real GDP growth slowed to a 2.5 percent (annual) rate in the second quarter, following a 5.6 percent gain in the first quarter.
The behavior of the leading index so far suggests that economic growth should continue at a slow but steady pace in the near term.
The index is designed to predict economic activity three to six months in the future.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the ten indicators that make up the leading index
increased in August . The positive contributors — beginning with the largest positive contributor — were stock prices, real money supply*, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials*.
The negative contributors — beginning with the largest negative contributor —
were index of consumer expectations, building permits, average weekly manufacturing hours, interest rate spread, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), vendor performance, and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods*.
The leading index now stands at 137.6 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in July and increased 0.1 percent in June.
During the six-month span through August, the leading index decreased 0.6 percent , with five out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals fifty percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four indicators that make up the coincident index increased in August. The positive contributors to the index - beginning with the largest positive contributor - were employees on nonagricultural payrolls, personal income less transfer payments*, and manufacturing and trade sales*. The negative contributor was industrial production.
LAGGING INDICATORS. The lagging index stands at 124.2 (1996=100) in August, with four of the seven components advancing. The positive contributors to the index — beginning with the largest positive contributor — were commercial and industrial loans outstanding*, change in CPI for services, ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales*, and ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income*. The negative contributors — beginning with the largest negative contributor — were change in labor cost per unit of output* and average duration of unemployment (inverted). The average prime rate charged by banks* held steady in August. Based on revised data, the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in July and increased 0.6 percent in June.
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