Alles rund ums Öl

[Goldfisch]

MARKET WATCH

Terrorist threats, refinery outages boost energy prices

By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, Apr. 16 -- Crude futures prices rebounded on the New York market Thursday after the US Department of State ordered nonessential US personnel out of Saudi Arabia because of the threat of a possible terrorist attack.

Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer and exporter of crude among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, has recently experienced a wave of violence that may be connected to Al-Qaeda. That and continued violence in Iraq have traders worried about possible disruptions of world oil supplies.

Those worries were heightened by reports of more problems at US refineries. Premcor Inc. said Thursday it shut down five units at its 225,000 b/d Port Arthur, Tex., refinery. Motiva Enterprises LLC shut down a 17,820 b/d hydrocracking unit at its 250,000 b/d refinery, also in Port Arthur.

Earlier, Giant Industries Inc., Scottsdale, Ariz., said it would temporarily shut down all operating units at its 20,800 b/d Ciniza refinery at Gallup, NM, following an Apr. 8 fire at an alkylation unit (OGJ Online, Apr. 13, 2004).

Energy prices
The May contract for benchmark US light, sweet crudes jumped by 85¢ to $37.57/bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while the June contract advanced by 68¢ to $37.10/bbl. On the US spot market, West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, Okla., gained 32¢ to $37.05/bbl.

Heating oil for May delivery escalated by 2.88¢ to 96.55¢/gal on NYMEX, following government and industry reports of large declines in US inventories of distillates (OGJ Online, Apr. 15, 2004). Gasoline for the same month was up by 2.35¢ to $1.1788/gal. However, the May natural gas contract dipped by 1¢ to $5.73/Mcf Thursday, "as buying on a late rally in crude oil was offset by a soft cash [natural gas spot] market and mostly mild weather [outlook] that should slow heating demand," said analysts Friday at Enerfax Daily.

In London, the May contract for North Sea Brent crude lost 33¢ to $33.12/bbl Thursday on the International Petroleum Exchange, as traders reacted to reports of a large build in US crude inventories. That market will be watching US crude stocks in coming weeks for a trend toward inventory increases, said London brokers. If that occurs, crude prices could fall by at least $2/bbl, they said.

Meanwhile, gas oil for May delivery increased by $8.75 to $295.75/tonne. The May natural gas contract was up by 2.6¢ to the equivalent of $3.58/Mcf on IPE.

The average price for OPEC's basket of seven benchmark crudes gained 44¢ to $32.54/bbl Thursday.

[simplify]

ein einstieg wird erst nach überschreiten der 34$ fällig, ich bin gespannt, ob der alte höchstpreis von vor dem irakkrieg tatsächlich genommen wird?



die IEA hat jetzt ihre prognosen für den weltölverbrauch deutlich angehoben. grund ist die riesige nachfrage aus dem asiatischen bereich.
auf der anderen seite wurd die angebotsmasse von nicht OPEC lieferanten nach unten abgesenkt.
somit dürfte klar sein, dass wir wieder voll von der OPEC abhängig sind (den grünen sei dank )

ich kann mir daher einen ölpreis mittelfristig mehr bei 40$ vorstellen als in der von der OPEC genannten bandbreite 22 - 28$

[Goldfisch]

PS. folgender Artickel passt zu einem Preisband oberhalb des Ansatzes der OPEC.

EIA: China, US dominate future long-term oil demand growth

By OGJ editors
WASHINGTON, DC, Apr. 19 -- Over the next 2 decades China and the US will fuel much of the new global oil demand, a long-term analysis by the US Energy Information Administration predicts.

EIA projected world oil use will increase to 121 million b/d in 2025 from 77 million b/d in 2001, according to the agency's base reference case.

"Much of the increase in oil demand is expected to occur in the United States and in developing Asia," EIA said in its International Energy Outlook 2004, released Apr. 14.

The US, China, and the rest of developing Asia account for nearly 60% of the projected growth in world oil use, EIA found. Although producers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are expected to capture the bulk of expanding markets, non-OPEC supply should remain very much in the game, EIA reported.

"The projected increment in worldwide oil use would require an increment to world productive capacity of more than 44 million b/d over current levels. Although OPEC producers are expected to be the major suppliers of increased production requirements, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain competitive, with major increments in supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa," EIA said.

Consumption, pricing patterns
Although industrialized nations still consume more of the world's petroleum and related products compared with developing countries, the gap is projected to narrow by 2025. In 2001, developing nations consumed 64% as much oil as industrialized nations; by 2025 they are expected to consume 94% as much as their industrialized counterparts.

"Gross domestic product in developing Asia is expected to expand at an average annual rate of 5.1%, compared with 3%/year for the world as a whole. With such strong growth in GDP, demand for energy in developing Asia doubles over the forecast, accounting for 40% of the total projected increment in world energy consumption and 70% of the increment for the developing world alone," EIA said.

EIA reported that despite increasing demand, oil prices will fall after 2004 to $25/bbl (in 2002 dollars) and then rise slowly from 2006 onward to 2025, reaching $27/bbl in 2002 dollars (in nominal dollars $51/bbl).

By comparison, a recent International Energy Agency forecast expects oil import prices to be slightly lower than what EIA envisions through 2010. EIA acknowledged that its 2004 outlook contains price projections that are generally at the high end of the spectrum of price forecasts across the 2010-25 timeframe.

EIA noted that IEA did not publish a price projection of its own for 2015 or 2025 in its World Energy Outlook 2002; however, IEA does state that prices are assumed to rise in a linear fashion after 2010, to $30.03/bbl in 2030 from $21.75/bbl in 2010.

EIA noted that a "simple interpolation" of IEA data results in oil price projections of $23.82/bbl in 2015 and $29.96/bbl in 2025, a number slightly higher than what EIA itself foresees.

Shorter term, EIA agrees with some private analysts that US and global prices could temporarily soften in 2005 provided gasoline demand follows seasonal trends and inventories rise.

Natural gas
Meanwhile, EIA said that natural gas remains the world's fastest-growing energy source, although the agency's demand projections are lower than last year taking into account certain geophysical and economic factors.

Over 2001-25, global consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by 67% to 151 tcf by 2025. Last year, EIA predicted natural gas demand would climb to 176 tcf.

EIA said the change reflects "slightly lower assumptions for worldwide economic growth, a slower projected decline in the world's nuclear power generation, and concerns about the long-term ability of natural gas producers to bring sufficient resources to market at prices competitive with those of other fuels."

Worldwide natural gas use is expected to equal coal use (on a btu basis) by 2010, and by 2025 it is expected to exceed coal use by 12%.

Quelle: Oil&Gasjournal

[simplify]

heute ist am weltmarkt eine leichte entspannung bei rohöl zu spüren.
hier mal eine auflistung die auf den preis wirken

istreibende (bullische) Einflüsse:
Terrorängste in Saudi Arabien (starker Einfluss)
Krieg im Irak
Eskalation der Gewalt in Palästina
Raffinerieprobleme in den USA
Weltweite Ölnachfrage steigt stärker als erwartet
Fonds setzen weiter auf steigende Preise
Charttechnik, langfristiger Aufwärtstrend intakt

isdrückende (bärische) Einflüsse:
Saudis prognostizieren Rückkehr der Preise unter 28$ (starker Einfluss)
Saudis leisten Bush angeblich Wahlhilfe durch Preispolitik (starker Einfluss)
Entspannung im US-Benzinmarkt
Tendenziell steigende US-Vorräte
Irak steigert Ölproduktion
Charttechnik, kurzfristige Gegenbewegung läuft

[simplify]

der ölpreis kommt seit gestern etwas ins rutschen, grund waren die daten zur us-lagerhaltung, die höher als erwartet ausfällt

Die Lagerdaten lesen sich im Einzelnen wie folgt:
Rohöl: +0,2 Mio. Barrel (DOE) bzw. -3,2 Mio. Barrel (API)
Heizöl und Diesel: +0,7 Mio. Barrel (DOE) bzw. +1,5 Mio. Barrel (API)
Benzin: +1,6 Mio. Barrel (DOE) bzw. -1,3 Mio. Barrel (API)
:

so ist ein argument der märkte für preissteigerung erstmal vom tisch.
ein weiterer grund soll von den saudis kommen, die angeblich druck auf den ölpreis machen um bush die wiederwahl zu erleichtern, so jedenfalls Bob Woodward von der Washington Post in seinem neuen buch das gerade erschienen ist.

wie nachhaltig das ganze ist, muss sich erst noch zeigen, dier ölpreis kann schnell wieder drehen.

übrigens, wir euroländischen werden davon kaum profitieren, der preisrückgang wird vom starken dollar gefressen.

[Goldfisch]

Oil Reserves Still 34bn Barrels - DPR
This Day (Lagos)

April 22, 2004
Posted to the web April 22, 2004

Mike Oduniyi And Gloria Achoyamen
Lagos

Amid the controversy trailing the recent downgrade of oil and gas reserves held by Shell worldwide, the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) disclosed yesterday, that Nigeria's crude oil reserves remained at 34 billion barrels.

The DPR, however, said it had begun discussions with Shell Petroleum Development Comp-any (SPDC) on the latter's claim that the recategorisation of its global oil and gas reserves, affected about 1.3 billion barrels of Nigeria's total oil reserve.


Speaking to THISDAY in Lagos, the DPR's Deputy Director, Resource Manage-ment, Mr. Benjamin Ogunjana, said Nigeria's current hydrocarbon reserves include 29 billion barrels of crude and five billion barrels of condensate, to take the total to 34 billion barrels, as well as 187 trillion cubic feet of gas.

"When we say 34 billion barrels, we mean we are adding oil plus condensate," said Ogun-jana.

Shell, Nigeria's biggest oil producer, shocked the global oil industry last January when it announced that it had cut its oil reserves claims by 20 percent or 3.9 billion barrels. It further reduced the claims by 250 million barrels, citing Nigeria as one of its operating areas affected most by the exercise.

The announcement jolted the Federal Government, which saw it as a major blow to its campaign for a higher production quota from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The Federal Government had banked on the country's rising oil reserves and production levels, to demand for a higher OPEC quota.

The Shell reserve cut also coincided with visit to the country at that time by a two-member team from OPEC who came to collate data on Nigeria's oil reserves, production and refining status.

The DPR, the nation's oil industry monitors, however, maintained yesterday that the reserves claims Shell had submitted to the United States Security and Exchange Commission (SEC), did not match Nigeria's regulatory standards.

According to Ogunjana, the DPR's standard for recording oil reserves is adding the data on proven oil reserves as well as those on possible oil reserves.

"What Shell submitted to US SEC is proven (reserves), but what we take from Shell is proven and possible. So when you downgrade one category it can change to another category.

"In other words if you downgrade the proven category, the residual will go to possible category (P2)," said the DPR chief.

Ogunjana said the DPR was holding talks with Shell on the discrepancies in oil reserve figures. The two parties, he said, first met last Wednesday while another meeting has been scheduled for two weeks time.

He said that Nigeria's oil reserves grew by 6 billion barrels in the last seven years, mainly through exploration in the deep offshore in which a total of 32 wells were drilled with 27 of such wells posting successful commercial discoveries.

Meanwhile, the Federal Government has enjoined Norwegian investors to show more presence in the Nigerian oil and gas sector, through the establishment of fabrication facilities and other exploration and production infrastructure in the country.

Making the call in Lagos yesterday was DPR Director, Mr. Mac Ofurhie, while receiving a Norwegian delegation led by its Petroleum and Energy Minister, Mr. Einer Steensaes.

Ofurhie also called on the Norwegian investors to make use of local goods and services, in line with the spirit of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed between Nigeria and Norway in 2001.

He said that the Institutional Agreements between the DPR and the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) was directly derived from the MOU, adding that the cooperation between both institutions has been focusing on the need by Nigeria to sustain a virile regulatory body "by tapping from the experience of Norway, especially as it relates to the deep offshore frontiers."

"The initiative is particularly important, now that oil and gas activities in Nigeria are significantly shifting into the relatively new frontiers of deepwater operations," Ofurhie said.

According to the DPR boss, apart from tapping from the Norwegian relatively longer experience in the offshore terrain, the collaboration could also tap from the impressive experience of Norway on gas development, as Nigeria strove to attain the objectives of gas flare-out in 2008.

He described the on-going offshore floating LNG project being sponsored by Norway's Statoil and other partners at the Nnwa Doro field as a good example of practical cooperation.

Quelle: allAfrica.com

[PC-Oldie-Udo]

23.04.2004


ÖLPREIS
Alle gegen die Opec



Regierungen in Europa und den USA fürchten um den Aufschwung. Grund: Der unvermindert steigende Ölpreis. Schon kostet Benzin so viel wie vor der Irak-Krise im vergangenen Jahr. Den Schuldigen haben die Verantwortlichen bereits ausgemacht.

...

http://www.manager-magazin.de/untern...296652,00.html

[Goldfisch]

Relaxed G7 Happy with Economy, Oil a Risk

Sat Apr 24, 7:43 PM ET Add Business - Reuters to My Yahoo!


By Gernot Heller

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Finance chiefs from the world's rich nations agreed on Saturday the global economic outlook had brightened significantly but the threat of further oil price rises was one of the few clouds on the horizon.

Government ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven economic powers stopped short of recommending action on energy costs, in part because of differences on how severe an impact oil price rises would have on their economies.

"Prospects are favorable and although risks remain, such as energy prices, overall the balance of risks to the outlook has improved," G7 officials said in a communique after their Washington gathering alongside spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (news - web sites) and World Bank (news - web sites).

European ministers appeared more anxious than their U.S. counterparts about the threat from oil.

"The principal risk is the oil price risk," said French Finance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy. His German counterpart Hans Eichel said he hoped planned output cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would not become a reality.

Concerns were tempered, however, by a presentation to the meeting by U.S. Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) who, according to French officials, explained that precautionary stock building was partly behind surging energy costs.

WARM GLOW

Still, discussion of the risks could not disguise an overarching contentment with world growth this year that is forecast to come in at its fastest pace in four years.

Not even the noise of thousands of pot-banging, whistle-blowing demonstrators -- angry at the treatment of highly indebted poor countries by multilateral Western institutions -- seemed to darken the G7 mood.

The ministers sounded more sanguine about the economy's fortunes than even 2-1/2 months ago, saying the recovery "continued to strengthen and broaden" since they last met in Boca Raton, Florida, in February.

The G7 -- the United States, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan -- met as key economies like the United States and even Japan show persuasive signs of gaining momentum that finance ministers expect to be sustained.

"Beyond the United States, there is also good news," U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow told a news conference. "Japan has turned in several good quarters, as has the United Kingdom."

Snow said growth in Germany and France must be stepped up. European officials acknowledged this lag.

"I explained our analysis of the euro area situation. I confirmed that we had a gradual recovery," European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told a news briefing -- stressing that the ECB had not faced any G7 demands to ease its currently neutral stance on interest rates.

TONE IS UPBEAT

With the dollar's recovery since the Florida meeting pushing foreign exchange down the agenda, the communique stuck to wording adopted in February that warned against excess currency volatility.

The ministers also repeated a call first made in Dubai last September for "more flexibility" in exchange rates -- language seen as referring to China's rigid yuan peg to the dollar.

The dollar, under heavy pressure going into the Florida meeting, has partly recovered and this has clearly come as a relief to G7 participants that export to U.S. markets.

"It is not clear whether there was a link, like the cause and effect, on foreign exchange since the statement of the G7 in Boca Raton. But all in all, G7 and Italy consider positive the development of foreign exchange since Boca Raton," Italian Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti said.

TEMPORARY PRICE HIKES?

Energy prices were not the only danger sign on official radars this weekend.

Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund warned about the potential impact of higher U.S. interest rates, now considered inevitable.

Bundesbank Vice President Juergen Stark told reporters: "There are signs that the present situation of globally low interest rates does not necessarily have to persist."

Snow conceded the recovery would likely generate some moderate inflation pressures but in general "we look at a fairly benign cost outlook."

Generally, though, G7 members looked forward to the end of a stretch of weak global growth and pledged to use the upturn to repair damaged budgets and seek long-term economic reforms.

The G7 members agreed to work for "sustained medium-term fiscal consolidation" as growth picks up, an apparent reference to tackling big budget deficits.

Snow repeated a U.S. vow to halve its deficit by 2009.

A senior U.S. Treasury official told reporters there had been considerable discussion in the meeting about the risk of economic overheating in China and said ministers recognized this as a danger to global expansion.

He said a place at the top economic table for China may have to be considered but that it was not a U.S. decision.

"China is a critically important player in the global economy -- and yes, I think some role for them participating in the meetings at some point in the future will clearly (be) useful," the official said. (Additional reporting by Ritsuko Ando, Cyrille Cartier, Sumeet Desai, Francesca Landini, Gilbert Le Gras, Brian Love, Anna Willard, Andrea Hopkins, Tim Ahmann, Jonathan Nicholson, Alister Bull in Washington and John Parry in New York)

[Goldfisch]

Refining shortfall threatens to drive prices up

Reuters

London: A lack of refining capacity that has plagued US energy supply since the turn of the decade is now becoming a global phenomenon, threatening to drive oil price strength in years to come, analysts say.

This is a dramatic shift from just two years ago when companies were exiting the refining sector due to poor profits.

Now, surging US and Chinese fuel demand and the failure to build or significantly upgrade plants in past decades are making the fuel supply picture extremely tight, leaving refineries less able to respond to disruptions like strikes or fires and increasing the risk of fuel price spikes. Soaring product prices are in turn helping drive crude futures.

"The oil market is on a knife-edge because global refining capacity is completely overstretched - the key is not crude but refined products," said Sempra Energy consultant Geoff Pyne. "The equation changed after China emerged as a huge buyer."

Demand for motor, aviation and heating fuels has skyrocketed in the past two years as China has stepped in to buy vast quantities of oil products, sucking up Asia's spare refining capacity as well as imports from Europe and the Middle East.

Consultancy PFC Energy expects global product demand to exceed refining capacity by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by end-2004. In contrast, capacity exceeded demand by 5.7 million bpd just five years ago, it said.

"A decade ago there was enough headroom to cope with unexpected supply and demand shocks," Barclays Capital analyst Kevin Norrish wrote. "Today there is no chance of being able to cope with a significant shock without a severe price response."

For instance, a March fire at a Texas refinery sent US gasoline futures to an all-time high within minutes.

Opec says high US gasoline prices boil down simply to a shortage of refining capacity. "There has not been a refinery built in America in the last 20 years. So if you produce more crude but you can't refine it, it's not going to translate into gasoline," Saudi Arabian foreign affairs adviser Adel Al Jubeir said recently.

The West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says global refining capacity must rise by 1.3 per cent a year for oil product supply to keep pace with demand growth.

It predicts demand at 114 million bpd by 2030, requiring refining capacity of 121 million bpd - 50 per cent up on current levels.

But building new plants, or even adding capacity at existing refineries takes years and costs billions of dollars. Lack of investment has actually cut capacity in the United States by two million bpd over the past 20 years to 16 million bpd.

The US Department of Energy (DOE) projects that refined products' share in net petroleum imports could double by 2025.

"More imports would be needed as the projected growth in demand for refined products exceeds the expansion of domestic refining capacity," the DOE said in a report this year.

US gasoline markets rely on imports from Europe but Asian growth has sparked an east-west tug-of-war for barrels, since much Asian refining capacity shut down after the 1998 economic collapse and is yet to be restored.

Quelle: Gulf News

[Goldfisch]

Russia has more oil than previously thought
By Arkady Ostrovsky in Moscow and Carola Hoyos in London
Published: April 29 2004 21:04 | Last Updated: April 29 2004 21:04


In the spate of bad news that hit the shareholders in Yukos, Russia's embattled oil company, one important announcement by the group last month went almost unnoticed.


Following an external audit by DeGoyler & McNaughton, the US auditors, Yukos reported a significant increase in its proved reserves. Under the strict standards set by the Securities and Exchange Commission in the US, Yukos's hydrocarbon reserves increased from 11.2bn barrels of oil equivalent (boe) at the end of 2002 to 13bn boe at the end of 2003.

At the same time TNK-BP said its current reserves of 6.1bn boe could rise to 9bn boe in the short term and could go up to 30bn boe in the longer term.

Altogether, analysts' research suggests, Russia's oil reserves could prove to be three times higher than previously thought, making it one of the world's most attractive sources for reserves replacement.

According to the BP Statistical Review, Russia has 60bn barrels of proven oil reserves and natural gas reserves equivalent to 280bn barrels of oil. However, auditors and analysts say there is strong upward pressure on these figures.

Research by Brunswick UBS, the Moscow arm of the Swiss bank, shows that Russia's proved oil reserves alone could increase from 60bn barrels to 180bn barrels as companies revise their reserves. On current estimates, this would put Russia into second place in the world in terms of oil reserves after Saudi Arabia, which is estimated to have 300bn barrels of oil and oil equivalent.

So far Saudi Arabia has only agreed to let international companies explore for natural gas. The state oil company Saudi Aramco is unlikely to stand still in the coming years and western companies are still pining for a crack at its oil, which means it is likely the kingdom's reserves will also grow.

However, Russia and the Caspian are becoming increasingly important counterweights to the Middle East. European and US leaders are wooing the Kremlin for strategic supply deals to lessen their dependence on oil from the Middle East. Companies, including ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco of the US and Total of France are lining up to strike deals with their Russian counterparts.

"I believe that by the end of the decade Russia will be proven to have 50 per cent more hydrocarbon reserves than what Saudi Arabia has today," said Paul Collison, global emerging markets oil and gas strategist at Brunswick UBS.

Lord Browne, chief executive of BP, agreed that reserves would increase. "It does seem likely that there will be more reserves. I'm not sure if anyone really knows what the ultimate recovery will be of new technology put to use in old fields."

Analysts say strict rules applied by the US Securities and Exchange Commission mean Russian companies book fewer barrels than they have potential for. Martin Wierwiorowski, a general director for Russia and the former Soviet Union at DeGoyler & McNaughton, said: "We find that both under SEC and SPE [Society of Petroleum Engineers] rules Russian companies are able to book a relatively low percentage of their reserves when compared to their western counterparts."

However, Mr Collison argued that not only were Russian companies starting to manage their reserves better, but they were also doing more drilling and exploratory work which would allow them legitimately to book higher reserves with the SEC. "The trend in Russia is opposite to the one in the western world where a number of companies have revised their reserves downwards," he said.

Mr Wierwiorowski said at the end of 2002 Russian companies on average had booked about 18 per cent of oil in place under the strict SEC rules and 24 per cent un der SPE rules. This is about half the level booked by companies in western oil fields. However, anecdotal evidence from Russian companies say many of them are aiming to recover between 30 to 40 per cent of oil in place in the short term.

The Russian companies also have to cope with SEC rules preventing them from booking reserves which are beyond the area that can be captured by a producing oil well. Given the huge size of Russian oilfields, this means that companies are restricted from booking oil between wells that are widely spaced.

The SEC rules also do not allow Russian companies to book reserves which are expected to be produced beyond the expiry date of their current licences. Most Russian companies incorporated in the middle of 1990s were given 25-year licences, which will expire in the next 14-16 years.

When the Russian government renews these licences, Russian companies will be able to book more barrels. But Adam Landes, an oil and gas analyst at Renaissance Capital, a Moscow-based brokerage, says that even now by changing the wording of Russian laws to satisfy the SEC that these licences will be renewed, it will allow Russian companies immediately to book up to 70 per cent more reserves than they do currently.

However, Russian companies will ultimately need better technology and oil well management and more drilling and exploratory work to utilise their potential.

[simplify]

der rohölpreis ist weiter in einem robusten aufwärtstrend, ich bin gespannt wo dass mal zum bruch kommt?

[Goldfisch]

@simplify meine Spekulation bleibt weiterhin bestehen, bei ca. 42$ Brent Crude Oil für Sept/Okt. 2004.



2004 fuel economy makes no headway over the previous year


Associated Press
May 3, 2004


WASHINGTON -- The average fuel economy of 2004 automobiles is 20.8 miles per gallon, unchanged from the previous year's models, the Environmental Protection Agency said last week.

The fleet-wide average for U.S. light-duty vehicles has remained fairly consistent since 1997, ranging between 20.6 mpg and 20.9 mpg, the EPA said in its annual report on fuel economy trends.

Those trends could gain increasing importance for consumers if gasoline prices remain high. Prices are expected to go up by another nickel a gallon nationwide by the end of June before returning to current levels before fall, the Energy Department has estimated. It expects pump prices to average about $1.81 a gallon for the three months ending in June.

Fleet-average fuel economy peaked at 22.1 mpg in 1987, the EPA said.

EPA officials also said fuel economy has declined in the last seven years because of the increasing popularity of less fuel- efficient light trucks, particularly sport-utilities. But they said hybrid-electric vehicles, clean diesel technology and variable displacement engines hold promise for raising the average in the near future.

Light trucks are expected to account for 48 percent of sales in 2004, compared with sales of cars at 52 percent, EPA said.

[crazy_coco]

ROHÖL
Experten befürchten Preisexplosion



Der Rohölpreis ist erneut kräftig gestiegen. Die Angst vor neuen Terroranschlägen im Nahen Osten und niedrige Lagerbestände schrauben den Preis immer höher. 40 Dollar je Barrel sind in Kürze möglich. Konjunktur und Finanzmärkte werden darunter leiden, sagen Experten.

...

http://www.manager-magazin.de/finanz.../a-298518.html

[simplify]

die sorgen sind durchaus berechtigt. jetzt kann man wieder lesen, das arafat sich hat verbarikadieren lassen, da er ein erneutes eingreifen der israelis auf sein hauptquartier befürchtet.
ich denke ein mord an arafat durch die israelis wird das fass im nahen osten zum überlaufen bringen.

wenn ich terroristenführer wäre, dann würde ich alles daran setzen, die lage in saudi arabien zu destabilisieren.
ein ausfall der saudis als öllieferant würde die kapitalistische welt in die knie zwingen.

[romko]

Ja aber öffnen dann nicht die Nicht-OPEC Staaten, wie Rußland, Norwegen ... ihre Ölhähne?
Aber ich vermute mal man stößt da schnell an die Kapazitätsgrenzen!