Traderboersenboard - Einzelnen Beitrag anzeigen - bullen und bären im Dailytalk bei TBB 2006

Benjamin · 18-09-2006, 15:21

S&P DAILY CHART

We have been comparing these two trends as they have been developing and we’ve seen how the S&P 500 has been a much stronger trend. The NASDAQ Comp has hit the objective I had posted for this rally. The S&P is within a few points of the obvious old high and a possible stopping point for this rally, so a top is possible. I would prefer to see a few more days of distribution which would be a few more day of congestion. But a lot of stocks that were running appear they could have exhausted on Friday so I believe a top is possible.

My usual methodology is to look at the chart and ask myself what is the last thing on the chart? The last thing on this chart is a marginal new high following a 4 day counter trend move down. Remember 4 days down and a new high within two days is a strong showing. The next “thing” on the chart before that is a higher double bottom and is another bullish pattern. Remember, the direction of the trend indicates the importance of the pattern. Double bottoms in up trends are meaningful, while double bottoms in downtrends have a very high probability of failure. But even in view of the higher double bottom and the counter trend of first degree (one to four days). I still believe there is a chance this trend may have exhausted or will do so the first few days of this week, if there is only a small advance. Something that would look more like congestion that an advance. So they either roll them over this week or we could see this extend to a 1/8 or ¼ advance of this range down or around 1340. But befor we are looking for evidence this has just exhausted.

18-09-2006, 15:21	#1631
Benjamin TBB Family Registriert seit: Mar 2004 Beiträge: 10.373	S&P DAILY CHART We have been comparing these two trends as they have been developing and we’ve seen how the S&P 500 has been a much stronger trend. The NASDAQ Comp has hit the objective I had posted for this rally. The S&P is within a few points of the obvious old high and a possible stopping point for this rally, so a top is possible. I would prefer to see a few more days of distribution which would be a few more day of congestion. But a lot of stocks that were running appear they could have exhausted on Friday so I believe a top is possible. My usual methodology is to look at the chart and ask myself what is the last thing on the chart? The last thing on this chart is a marginal new high following a 4 day counter trend move down. Remember 4 days down and a new high within two days is a strong showing. The next “thing” on the chart before that is a higher double bottom and is another bullish pattern. Remember, the direction of the trend indicates the importance of the pattern. Double bottoms in up trends are meaningful, while double bottoms in downtrends have a very high probability of failure. But even in view of the higher double bottom and the counter trend of first degree (one to four days). I still believe there is a chance this trend may have exhausted or will do so the first few days of this week, if there is only a small advance. Something that would look more like congestion that an advance. So they either roll them over this week or we could see this extend to a 1/8 or ¼ advance of this range down or around 1340. But befor we are looking for evidence this has just exhausted.