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Benjamin · 08-09-2006, 22:01

Declining profit momentum in US to weigh on global slowdown

Friday, September 08, 2006
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasser.

NEW YORK, September 8 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Dresdner Kleinwort say that recent whole economy data on profits from the US suggests that deteriorating profit momentum in the economy would weigh on the global slowdown.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that non-financial profits are likely to come under increasing pressure during 2H06. Revenue and productivity growth is expected to decelerate, and pricing power is likely to diminish, pushing unit labour costs higher , the analysts say. Increased cost-trimming by companies, with an aim to cut back labour inputs, would exert further pressure on consumer spending , Dresdner Kleinwort adds.
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Japan’s loss of profit momentum to worsen global slowdown

Friday, September 08, 2006
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasser.

LONDON, September 8 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Dresdner Kleinwort say that recent whole economy trends in Japan point towards deteriorating profit momentum in the economy exerting pressure on the global slowdown.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that Japanese companies are likely to witness a loss of profit momentum in 2H06 in view of decelerating growth and an increase in wage inflation . In 3Q, Japan’s recorded its highest y/y rise in business investment since 3Q 1990. The analysts point out, however, that the current situation of capital spending exceeding the pace of profits is unsustainable in the longer term .
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Risk of U.S. recession growing: HSBC
Fri Sep 8, 2006

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investment bank HSBC has revised downward its forecast for 2007 economic growth and cautioned that the risk of an outright recession is growing as a retreat in housing threatens household balance sheets.

The company argues that while corporate profits have remained sky-high, the incomes of most Americans have effectively fallen over the last 18 months.

That, say economists Stephen King and Ian Morris, could be a recipe for hard times in an economy that relies on consumers for over two-thirds of its strength .

"Never before have households been so hard hit at a time companies are doing so well," the two economists said in a research note to clients. "So it's likely that the U.S. could slow down quite a long way."

They now see gross domestic product expanding just 1.9 percent next year, down from an earlier forecast of 2.6 percent and from an expected rate of growth around 3.5 percent for 2006.

Making things worse, the bank says, a mammoth budget deficit means the U.S. government has "less room to maneuver" if the economy does skid off track .

In the last recession, a massive round of tax cuts and a super-loose monetary policy helped the economy get a second wind. Americans will have no such luck this time around, King and Morris warn.

08-09-2006, 22:01	#1585
Benjamin TBB Family Registriert seit: Mar 2004 Beiträge: 10.373	Declining profit momentum in US to weigh on global slowdown Friday, September 08, 2006 Dresdner Kleinwort Wasser. NEW YORK, September 8 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Dresdner Kleinwort say that recent whole economy data on profits from the US suggests that deteriorating profit momentum in the economy would weigh on the global slowdown. In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that non-financial profits are likely to come under increasing pressure during 2H06. Revenue and productivity growth is expected to decelerate, and pricing power is likely to diminish, pushing unit labour costs higher , the analysts say. Increased cost-trimming by companies, with an aim to cut back labour inputs, would exert further pressure on consumer spending , Dresdner Kleinwort adds. #################### Japan’s loss of profit momentum to worsen global slowdown Friday, September 08, 2006 Dresdner Kleinwort Wasser. LONDON, September 8 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Dresdner Kleinwort say that recent whole economy trends in Japan point towards deteriorating profit momentum in the economy exerting pressure on the global slowdown. In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that Japanese companies are likely to witness a loss of profit momentum in 2H06 in view of decelerating growth and an increase in wage inflation . In 3Q, Japan’s recorded its highest y/y rise in business investment since 3Q 1990. The analysts point out, however, that the current situation of capital spending exceeding the pace of profits is unsustainable in the longer term . ##################### Risk of U.S. recession growing: HSBC Fri Sep 8, 2006 NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investment bank HSBC has revised downward its forecast for 2007 economic growth and cautioned that the risk of an outright recession is growing as a retreat in housing threatens household balance sheets. The company argues that while corporate profits have remained sky-high, the incomes of most Americans have effectively fallen over the last 18 months. That, say economists Stephen King and Ian Morris, could be a recipe for hard times in an economy that relies on consumers for over two-thirds of its strength . "Never before have households been so hard hit at a time companies are doing so well," the two economists said in a research note to clients. "So it's likely that the U.S. could slow down quite a long way." They now see gross domestic product expanding just 1.9 percent next year, down from an earlier forecast of 2.6 percent and from an expected rate of growth around 3.5 percent for 2006. Making things worse, the bank says, a mammoth budget deficit means the U.S. government has "less room to maneuver" if the economy does skid off track . In the last recession, a massive round of tax cuts and a super-loose monetary policy helped the economy get a second wind. Americans will have no such luck this time around, King and Morris warn. Geändert von Benjamin (08-09-2006 um 22:07 Uhr)