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USA: Haushalt, Schuldengrenze

Congress needs to pass a spending measure to keep the government open after Sept. 30.
At the same time it’s facing a deadline to raise the nation’s debt limit.

GOP leaders don’t have a plan yet for how they’ll proceed.
The U.S. would begin missing payments in early to mid-October.

Zitat:

Trump has made clear for months he wasn’t happy with the last bipartisan spending deal in May because it didn’t fund a new wall on the southern border, his signature campaign promise. At the time, he tweeted that a “good” government shutdown may be needed to force Democrats to make concessions.

Congress will likely need a short-term stopgap bill since it needs more time to complete appropriations this fall.
Quelle: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rs-in-congress
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Zitat:

Conservatives in the Republican Study Committee and House Freedom Caucus are pushing for deep cuts to entitlement tied to the debt ceiling which moderates in the party are not prepared to vote in favor of. That means Republicans will likely need to assemble a bipartisan vote that includes Democrats, who have rejected the idea of attaching any conditions to a debt bill. This may leave GOP leaders deciding that the best way to build support for the debt increase is to pare it with the must-pass stopgap spending bill.

Quelle: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-ceiling-plans
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The government has enough money to pay its bills until Sept. 29. After that, Congress would have to give permission for the government to borrow more money to meet its obligations. (...) The federal government has never before defaulted on debt payments.
The government's fiscal year ends Sept. 30 and legislation is needed to prevent a partial shutdown of federal agencies.

Earlier this week, McConnell appeared in Kentucky with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, saying: "There is zero chance, no chance, we won't raise the debt ceiling."
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireS...iling-49396963
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AUG. 22, 2017, By ALEXANDER BURNS and JONATHAN MARTIN

McConnell, in Private, Doubts if Trump Can Save Presidency

Zitat:

In offhand remarks, Mr. McConnell has expressed a sense of bewilderment about where Mr. Trump’s presidency may be headed, and has mused about whether Mr. Trump will be in a position to lead the Republican Party into next year’s elections and beyond, according to people who have spoken to him directly.

Zitat:

The fury among Senate Republicans toward Mr. Trump has been building since last month, even before he lashed out at Mr. McConnell. Some of them blame the president for not being able to rally the party around any version of legislation to repeal the Affordable Care Act, accusing him of not knowing even the basics about the policy. Senate Republicans also say strong-arm tactics from the White House backfired, making it harder to cobble together votes and have left bad feelings in the caucus.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/22/u...ell-trump.html

SHUTDOWN:

Congress must pass annual spending bills around the end of the federal fiscal year on Sept. 30 to fund much of the U.S. government.
When disagreements prevent that, which is frequent, lawmakers often pass a temporary bill extending existing spending levels with no changes for days, weeks or months, while they work on a longer-lasting deal.
When they cannot agree on either a new spending plan or a short-term extension, the government shuts down. That has happened many times since the 1970s, usually for a few days, and can rattle markets.

Congress will return from its long summer recess on Sept. 5. At the time, it will have only about 12 working days to approve spending measures to keep the government open.
If spending measures are not passed before Oct. 1, portions of the government will begin to shut down and non-essential employees will go without pay until an agreement is reached.
There were three shutdowns in the 1990s, the longest lasting 21 days.

The "debt ceiling" is a legislative limit on how much money the federal government can borrow through debt issued by the U.S. Treasury. Once the limit is reached, Congress must raise it or the government cannot continue borrowing money and would default, or be unable to pay its bills.

default likely could be staved off until mid-October, thanks to "extraordinary measures" the Treasury put in place in March to delay a debt reckoning. Legislation to raise the debt limit will need to be adopted, at the very latest, by early to mid-October.
If the debt ceiling is not raised, the government would not be able to borrow more money or pay its bills, including payments on its debts, which could hurt the U.S. credit rating.

BUDGET & DEBT CEILING: The two move on separate tracks, but are likely to get tangled together, with Republican opponents of a debt ceiling increase likely demanding federal spending cuts.

Both the spending and debt ceiling bills can pass the Republican-led House of Representatives by a simple majority vote, but will need 60 votes to pass the Senate, where Republicans hold 52 of 100 seats, meaning they will need some Democratic support.
border-wall funding should be a priority in any spending legislation. Some of them have already indicated they are willing to shut down the government to get it. Democrats are uniformly opposed to Trump's wall
The Trump administration said it would back a "clean" raising of the debt ceiling, meaning it would not be tied to other policy measures. Democrats and moderate Republicans also support a clean debt-ceiling increase. But conservative Republicans, especially in the House, often use debt-ceiling legislation to insist on changes to spending, making them opposed to a clean bill.

Quelle:
AUGUST 23, 2017, by Amanda Becker in Washington; Editing by Kevin Drawbaugh and Peter Cooney, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1B32HA

Zitat:

House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.) is dealing with a particularly divided caucus, including members of the House Freedom Caucus who have been calling for major cuts to mandatory spending programs like Medicaid and food stamps for several years. Their votes could prove pivotal to adopting the budget resolution in the House. Including spending reductions in the House budget resolution may be an attractive way to shore up their support at this stage—especially since these same legislators are likely to be frustrated by a potential debt ceiling increase without corresponding spending cuts this fall.

Molly E. ReynoldsThursday, August 24, 2017: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgo...on-the-budget/
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By Anna Edgerton and Sahil Kapur, 18. August 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...showdown-nears

Zitat:

House conservatives are split over how to approach the upcoming debate over the nation’s debt limit, with some resigned to raising it with little drama and others gearing up for a standoff over federal spending levels that could result in an unprecedented default.

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“There’s going to be strong opposition from lots of Freedom Caucus members, and my guess is lots of members of the House Republican conference” if the GOP doesn’t include some kind of spending cuts as conditions, he said.

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Since a deal to raise the debt ceiling will need at least eight Democrats in the Senate, the minority party has leverage to block any spending cuts or other policy changes that Republicans may try to add.

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One likely scenario is that leaders decide to add the debt ceiling measure to a stopgap spending bill that will be needed to keep the government funded after Sept. 30. This, however, would mean that it could get tied up with President Donald Trump’s demands to fund his border wall with Mexico, something most Democrats have rejected.

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On the debt ceiling, members of the House Freedom Caucus have long demanded cuts to spending on mandatory programs like Social Security be part of any debt bill.

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The 2011 deal (Obama administration) that averted that default was the last time Republicans were able to extract fiscal concessions for a debt limit hike. Since then, they’ve been forced to raise the debt ceiling without strings attached at every deadline, as Democrats take a resolute position against what they describe as hostage-taking by the far right.

Zitat:

Mark Meadows, the North Carolina Republican who chairs the Freedom Caucus, earlier this month sought to reassure bondholders that the U.S. won’t default on its debt. He said while he’s “bullish” on raising the debt limit, he still preferred to attach some reforms to bend the trajectory of the federal deficit.
“I think we ought to attach something to it, we always have, why should we change this time?” Meadows told reporters after a tax event on Aug. 2. “Either that will get done or a clean debt ceiling will get done. We will raise the debt ceiling and there shouldn’t be any fear of that.”

Zitat:

Raising the debt ceiling allows the Treasury to make payments that have already been authorized by Congress. It doesn’t allow the government to commit to spending additional money Congress hasn’t approved.

Zitat:

Doch ganz so sicher ist die Sache nicht: Der reaktionäre Flügel der Republikaner hat im Kongress großen Einfluss. Das Gezerre um die Krankenversicherung zeigte, dass viele Erzkonservative auch unter einem republikanischen Präsidenten kompromisslos darauf bestehen, dass die Staatausgaben gesenkt werden. Trotz einer Mehrheit in beiden Kammern gelang es den Republikanern nicht, ein zentrales Wahlkampfversprechen umzusetzen und eine Gesundheitsreform auf den Weg zu bringen.

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Doch es sieht so aus, als ob Trump die drohende Zahlungsunfähigkeit nutzen will, um den Demokraten und moderaten Republikanern politische Zugeständnisse abzupressen. Angesichts der Weigerung des Kongresses, ihm die Mittel zum Bau der im Wahlkampf versprochenen Mauer an der Grenze zu Mexiko zu bewilligen, sagte er bei einem Auftritt vor Anhängern in Phoenix: "Wir werden unsere Mauer bekommen." Auch wenn man dafür Behörden schließen müsse. Trump spielte damit auf den so genannten "government shutdown" an. Mit anderen Worten: Der Präsident regiert so, als ob er sich in der Opposition befindet.

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Und was passiert, wenn es tatsächlich zu keiner Einigung kommt? Die Ausgaben der Behörden würden wohl nach dem Rasenmäherprinzip auf das Notwendigste zurückgestutzt. Staatliche Einrichtungen wie Bibliotheken, Nationalparks oder auch Stätten wie die Freiheitsstatue würden geschlossen und Regierungsangestellte nicht bezahlt.

Zitat:

bleiben der Regierung zwei Optionen. Mit den Einnahmen kann sie die Rechnungen beispielsweise in der Reihenfolge ihres Eingangs bezahlen. Nach und nach würden die Forderungen immer größer, die Wartezeit für die Gläubiger länger. Doch irgendwann würden die Rechnungen schon bezahlt.

Das wäre auch bei der zweiten Option der Fall: Die Regierung kann zuerst die wichtigsten Forderungen begleichen und die weniger wichtigen hintanstellen. Das würde bedeuten, dass beispielsweise fällig werdende Staatsanleihen sofort bedient werden. Doch es ist fraglich, ob das Finanzministerium das kann. Denn die Systeme sind so ausgelegt, dass die Rechnungen sofort beglichen werden, unabhängig von ihrer Herkunft. Zudem würden Investoren, deren Forderungen nicht vorrangig beglichen werden, die USA mit Klagen überziehen - und versuchen, Staatseigentum pfänden zu lassen.

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Beide Optionen wären technisch gesehen eine Staatspleite. Viele Ökonomen fürchten, dass die Konsequenzen heftig wären, da die USA damit ihre Glaubwürdigkeit aufs Spiel setzten: Der Dollar ist die weltweite Leitwährung, weltweit haben Privatleute, Finanzinvestoren, Versicherungen, Banken und Regierungen viele Milliarden in US-Schuldtitel gesteckt - sie gelten als absolut sichere Anlage. Würde das Vertrauen in die USA als Schuldner erschüttert, könnte das wie nach dem Zusammenbruch von Lehman Brothers zu erheblichen Turbulenzen an Anleihen-, Devisen- und Aktienmärkten führen.

Zitat:

Denkbar ist allerdings auch ein anderes Szenario: Die Märkte reagieren vollkommen gelassen, weil sie davon überzeugt sind, dass der Kongress früher oder später die Decke schon anheben wird - und die USA ihre Schulden in Kürze wieder wie gewohnt bedienen.

Quelle: Mittwoch, 23. August 2017, n-tv.de , von Jan Gänger, Leiter des Wirtschaftsressorts , http://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/USA-na...e19997535.html