bullen und bären im Dailytalk bei TBB 2006

[simplify]

der DAX ist heute etwas schwächer. ob das aber der anfang einer konsolidierung von dem doch übertriebenen anstieg ist muss man abwarten. es kommen heute wohl entscheidende wirtschaftszahlen, die den weiteren weg zeichnen.
erstmal der ifo-index am vormittag, dann vor beginn des us-handels zahlen vom immobilienmarkt der usa. um 20 uhr kommt die FED mit ihrer zinsentscheidung. alle gehen davon aus, dass es keine anhebung gibt. es kommt diesmal auf den ausblick an. wird die FED nun die zinsen im frühjahr senken o. anheben?

zwischenzeitlich kann man ja mal lesen, was die analos für einen ausblick haben.

http://www.traderboersenboard.de/for...threadid=12776

[simplify]

die ifo-zahlen sind da

25.10.2006 08:01:03
Deutscher ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex im Oktober: 105,3 Punkte (Konsens: 104,5 Zähler / Vormonat: 104,9 Punkte). (th/FXdirekt)

[OMI]

Der Dax auch heute wieder im Plus - muss aktuell etwas von den Höchstständen abgeben.

[simplify]

die FED hat die zinsen unverändert gelassen. bernanke sieht weiter ein moderates wachstum der us-wirtschaft, wobei der immobilienmarkt doch schwächelt. wie immer muss er auch weiter wachsam sein in sachen inflation.
fazit: nix neues.

sowohl euro als auch DOW und nasdaq machten einen freudensprung, der jetzt aber wieder nachlässt.

ich denke es ist zeit für eine konsolidierung, damit die positive entwicklung an den aktienmärkten nicht mit einem knall endet.
der ölpreis steigt ja bereits deutlich an.

[Benjamin]

The Fed, rates and the economy
October 25, 2 006

The Federal Reserve's monetary-policy committee meets today amid concerns that the economy's core inflation rate is rising while economic activity is slowing. The Fed hasn't raised the federal-funds rate since late June, when the Fed increased it by a quarter-percentage point to 5.25 percent. That represented the 17th consecutive quarter-point increase over two years.

When the Fed convened in late June, the funds rate stood at 5 percent; and the 12-month consumer-price inflation rate (through May) was 4.2 percent. That meant that the real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) funds rate was 0.8 percent, which was quite low for that stage of the business cycle. Real gross domestic product had increased by 3.7 percent over the latest four quarters, including an annualized rate of 5.6 percent during the first quarter. Meanwhile, the core consumer inflation rate , which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors and is widely viewed as providing a good gauge of the economy's underlying inflationary pressures, had risen by 2.4 percent over the 12 months ending in May. The Fed's "comfort zone" for core inflation is between 1 percent and 2 percent.

By September, the 12-month rise in the CPI had sharply decelerated to 2.1 percent. This occurred for two reasons.
- First, energy prices plunged by more than 7 percent in September, causing the overall CPI to decline by 0.5 percent for the month.
- Second, the latest 12-month period now excludes September 2005, when energy prices soared in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.
Because the Fed has held the funds rate steady and because the overall inflation rate has declined to 2.1 percent, the real funds rate has now moved above 3 percent, a level it had not reached since late 2000. Meanwhile, businesses have succeeded in passing through higher costs (from earlier energy hikes) into non-energy prices. This has significantly increased the core inflation rate, which reached 2.9 percent in September, nearly a full point above the Fed's "comfort level."

Earlier, economic growth sharply decelerated to an annual rate of 2.6 percent for the second quarter and will likely decelerate further when the "advance" estimate for third-quarter GDP is released Friday. For now, the Fed is expected to maintain its target interest rate at 5.25 percent, hoping that the continuing slide in energy prices exerts downward momentum on the economy's underlying (core) inflationary pressures.

[Benjamin]

USA-Umfragewerte zu Bush und verschiedenen politischen Themen, u. a. Irak und "Sollen die Republikaner oder die Demokraten bei der US-Kongresswahl gewinnen?"
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/externa...FAULT#BushIraq

If election held today, want Republicans or Democrats to win control of Congress?
Published, Republicans%, Democrats% , Neither%, NotSure%, Error%, Polled Source

Aug. 11, 33.0%, 52.0%, 10.0%, 5.0%, 3.0%, 1,001, Associated Press-Ipsos
Oct. 10, 38.0%, 51.0% , 11.0%, 3.0%, 1,804, Pew Research Center

[Benjamin]

Inflation deflation
By Peter Morici
Oct 20, 2006

On Wednesday, the US Labor Department reported that the consumer price index fell 0.5% in September, after rising 0.2% in August. The consensus forecast was minus 0.3%, and my forecast published by Reuters was minus 0.4%.

Seasonally adjusted, food prices were up 0.4% in September, after rising 0.3 and 0.2% in August and July. Energy prices fell 7.2% in September, after rising 0.3 and 2.9% in August and July.

Energy and food prices are quite erratic from month to month, and Federal Reserve policymakers pay close attention to movements in the core index. The Federal Reserve is particularly concerned about the pass-through of higher petroleum prices into other sectors of the economy, and labor market pressures.

Core consumer prices - consumer prices less food and energy - rose 0.2% in September, after rising 0.2% in August and July. The consensus forecast and my forecast were 0.2%.

Since September 2005, core consumer prices have risen 2.9%, and the compound annual rate of change for the three months ending in September was 2.7%.

Core consumer price inflation remains above Fed chief Ben Bernanke's target range of 1 to 2%. However, core consumer price inflation in recent months reflected the continuing pass-through of prior surges in energy prices to non-energy products. Those pressures are now reversing.

Slowing economic growth, moderating housing prices and falling oil and natural gas prices should relieve pressures on both the broader consumer price index and core consumer prices. Inflation should decline the remainder of this year.

With the housing and automobile sectors slowing, raising interest rates further would serve no useful purpose. The Fed should not change interest rate policy before its January meeting.

Growth should recover to about 3% by the first half of next year.

Home prices are moderating, not collapsing, and overall these have risen nearly 50% over the past five years. Falling energy prices are bolstering consumer confidence, and consumers still have considerable home equity to tap. Holiday retail sales will demonstrate unexpected strength, and along with more robust commercial construction and business investment, will pump new life into to aging economic expansion.

Falling energy prices, moderating inflation and healthy holiday sales will strengthen corporate profits and investor confidence. The stock market rally should continue into the New Year.

Household savings performance will improve, and ordinary investors will shift from bigger mortgages and homes to stocks. Conditions are ripe for the long awaited bull market on Wall Street.

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland school of business and former chief economist at the US International Trade Commission.

[OMI]

Den ganzen Tag nicht hingesehen - aber das Ergebnis abermals beeindruckend. Der Dax weiter im Vormarsch - und nach dem Schluss der Amis sicherlich mit einem kräftigen Plus in den morgigen Handel.

[OMI]

Am Freitag Abend dann doch endlich mal ein etwas schwächerer Tag bei den Amis. Der Beginn einer mehr als nötigen Korrektur?

[OMI]

Wie erwartet folgt der Dax am Morgen den schwachen Vorgaben der Amis vom Freitag:

[OMI]

30.10.06 12:46
Analyse: Konsolidierung im DAX überfällig und gesund - Sentix

FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - Eine Konsolidierung im DAX ist nach Einschätzung der Sentix-Analysten 'überfällig und gesund'. Das starke Vertrauen in den US-Markt steige weiter an, heißt es in der am Montag veröffentlichten Studie. Die Werte seien noch nicht als extrem zu bezeichnen, dennoch dürften dem Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) bei 12.100/12.300 oder dem S&P 500 bei 1.380/1.390 Punkten kurzfristig die Luft ausgehen. 'Eine Konsolidierung sollte dann zur Pflichtübung werden', heißt es weiter.

Damit sollte auch der DAX eine Konsolidierung einläuten, die auf das Ausbruchs-Niveau bei 6.130 bis 6.150 Punkten führe. Für den DJ-Euro STOXX 50 bedeute dies ein Test der 3.900er Marke.

Neue Jahreshochs in den europäischen Indizes hätten die privaten Anleger mobilisiert. 'Und auch die Investment- Professionals kaufen zu', schreibt Sentix. 'Dort steigt die durchschnittliche Aktienquote von 78,6% auf 83,3% an und ist somit nur noch 4,8% vom letzten Hochpunkt bei 88,1% aus dem Dezember 2005 entfernt.'

Der Positionsaufbau geschehe jedoch nicht in Form von aggressiven Portfolio-Handlungen. Die Quote der stark überinvestierten Privatanleger stellt sich laut Sentix mit 5,6% immer noch moderat dar. Der Wert war im Januar 2006 fast doppelt so hoch und auch die Institutionellen bleiben mit 15,8% weit von ihrem bisherigen Maximum bei 32,4% entfernt./mw/tw

Quelle: dpa-AFX

[Benjamin]

Last week we were looking for evidence of an exhaustion of this trend. The time period had run out but due to the nature of the “PATTERN OF TRENDING” there still needed to be that move up that was a little more vertical and a few more days up than the previous recent multi day moves up. I thought 1393 would be the price level and the index is a few points short of that price. If the index can close below 1370 it will go a long way to indicate the exhaustion is complete. Moves against an exhaustion style of trend almost never exceed 3 days and the index is down one day.

Personally I believe this trend may have exhausted or is within a few days of that completion but no real evidence yet just a probability. Nobody should look to sell or short a high momentum trend without at least a lower high present.

[Benjamin]

Quelle: http://www.stock-channel.net/stock-b...&page=65&pp=15

[OMI]

Der Dax hat das Minus vom Morgen wieder komplett wettgemacht - ich hätte es nicht gedacht.

[OMI]

Und aktuell schießt der Dax nach oben auf 6280 Punkte!