Marktrelevanter 15. März 2017!

[Benjamin]

15. März: Der Schicksalstag 2017?

• Wahlen in den Niederlanden: Wie wird die künftige Rolle sein von der „Partij voor de Vrijheid“ („Partei der Freiheit“, PVV) des rechtskonservativen Geert Wilders?
• Deadline in den USA betr. federal debt limit:
  

  Im Oktober 2015 hatte sich der US-Kongress darauf geeinigt, die Schuldenobergrenze auszusetzen. Dieser Zeitraum endet am kommenden Mittwoch, den 15. März 2017. Dann könnte sich auch zeigen, inwieweit die treibenden Kräfte ein Interesse daran haben, den pausenlos kritisierten US-Präsidenten auszubremsen.

  
  Quelle Chart oben links: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/09/mnuch...s-reuters.html
  Quelle Chart oben rechts: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...-first-quarter
• US-Notenbank Fed wird in den USA die Leitzinsen erhöhen!
• Goldpreis dürfte dann steigen. Die Auswirkungen in den u. g. Chats wird spannend zu beobachten sein!

Donnerstag, 09.03.2017 - 20:05 Uhr, von Andreas Hoose, Chefredakteur Antizyklischer Börsenbrief, https://www.godmode-trader.de/artike...g-2017,5200247
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Passend dazu sagt Rocco Gräfe bei Godmode Trader am Samstag, 11.03.2017: "Es beginnt meine persönlich wichtigste DAX Woche!" "An allen Ecken entdecke ich warnende Indizien."Er hebt den 1. großen Verfallstermins (17.3.17) hervor. Er war schon seit Längerem vorsichtig geworden: "Schon am 26.1.17, bei DAX 11865, habe ich alle strategischen LONG Positionen, die ich seit November (konkret seit 9.11.16 abends, seit DAX ~10650) im Besitz hatte, verkauft." Er bemüht sich allerdings sehr, in keiner Weise alarmistisch zu wirken. Er hält 12100 (ggf. sogar 12400) im DAX für gut möglich. https://www.godmode-trader.de/analys...-woche,5202390
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Manche postulieren einen 8 year Fibonacci time cycle. Das Tief war am 06.03.2009 - die 8 Jahre waren also am 06.03.2017 um. Eine gewisse Unschärfe ist normal bei solchen Zyklen.

Quelle: Thursday, March 9, 2017, Daneric's Elliott Waves, http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.de/

-------------------Folgende Charts mit dem Muster 14 (10) Tage / 3 Jahre:


EUR/USD:



U.S. Dollar Index:
Quelle: https://stocktwits.com/topic/Elliottwave


Gold:
http://www.ftor.de/tbb/showthread.php?t=38480&page=36


DB S&P 500 Indikation:
Quelle: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/sto...w-buying-dips/


DAX Indikation (Commerzbank):




Low bei den Renditen der 10-jährigen Treasuries war wohl am 07.April 2017!

BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
BX:TMUBMUSD02Y


CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note:
The CBOE 10-Year Treasury Note (TNX) is based on 10 times the yield-to-maturity on the most recently auctioned 10-year Treasury note. A 10-year treasury note is a debt obligation issued by the United States government that matures in 10 years.



Euro Bund-Future (EUREX):



STXE 600 Banks Index (Price) (EUR):



BKX = PHLX/KBW Bank Index:The KBW Bank Index is a modified cap-weighted index consisting of 24 exchange-listed and National Market System stocks, representing national money center banks and leading regional institutions. The index is intended to reflect the evolving financial sector and was developed with a base value of 250 as of October 21, 1991.


Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Index (INDEX):
Das ist ein Rohstoffindex, der 19 verschiedene Futures umfasst, die an Warenterminbörsen gehandelt werden. Der Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index gilt als ein Indikator für die zukünftige Entwicklung der Inflation oder die Kostenentwicklung in der Industrie. Er ist bei einer Trendwende am Rohstoffmarkt ein guter Frühindikator für den Rentenmarkt, da Rohstoffe in ihrer Tendenz gegenüber den Anleihen in der Regel einen Vorlauf von drei bis sechs Monaten besitzen. Zwischen den Zinsen der Anleihen und den Rohstoffpreisen (CRB Index) besteht auch zeitlich eine enge Verbindung.

Zusammenhänge des CRB Index mit dem geometrisch gewichteten U.S. Dollar Index und dem handelsgewichteten Trade Weighted US Dollar Index sind erkennbar. Ein fallender US-Dollar ist gleichzusetzen mit inflationären Tendenzen und tendenziell steigenden Rohstoffpreisen. Dies gilt insbesondere für die Agrarrohstoffe und den Ölpreis.

Für Europäer ist es genau umgekehrt. Ein starker US-Dollar führt zu einem schwachen Euro (siehe Euro Effective Exchange Rate Index). Bezogen auf die Verknüpfungen zwischen den Märkten bedeutet das einen Gleichlauf von Rohstoffpreisen (CRB Index) und Euro. Zahlreiche Währungen sind relativ stark von der Entwicklung der Rohstoffpreise abhängig. https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomso...usammensetzung




Siemens AG (Indikation Commerzbank, EW-Analyse darunter):


Siehe auch: http://www.ftor.de/tbb/showthread.ph...39#post1259939


Facebook Inc. (in €, Commerzbank-Indikation):




VDAX-New Volatilitätsindex:




CBOE Volatility Index:

[Benjamin]

When the national debt ceiling's suspension was automatically lifted March 15, yet another countdown commenced. Congress will be compelled to raise the government's borrowing limit again before April 28 and fund the government.

First, all we can hope for is that Congress will meet the April 28 deadline without too much drama.

To be sure, Congress will have no choice but to raise the debt ceiling and must not default. However, it would be irresponsible for lawmakers to increase the ability of the government to accumulate more debt without implementing some institutional or budget constraint reform as part of this effort.

The best place to start would be a cap on all spending or a strict cut-as-you-go system. It might force reluctant lawmakers to reform Medicare and Social Security rather than subject the programs to arbitrary across-the-board cuts.

However, that would be only a short-term remedy.

What needs to happen is a fundamental reform of the programs that are growing out of control and redistributing massive amounts of wealth from the relatively younger and poorer in society to the relatively older and richer.

Short of that, we won't address our debt issue and will have to deal with the main consequences — namely, higher taxes and even slower growth.

Quelle:
Veronique de Rugy: Is the Sky the Limit for the Debt Ceiling?
By Veronique de Rugy | April 7, 2017 , https://www.noozhawk.com/article/ver...e_debt_ceiling

[Benjamin]

The Potential 2017 Government Shutdown Sparks Doubt for Trump Agenda
By Ashley Moore, Associate Editor, Money Morning • April 7, 2017
https://moneymorning.com/2017/04/07/...-trump-agenda/

As of right now, it doesn't look like Congress will vote on the debt ceiling before the summer recess on July 31. So it will likely be negotiated in conjunction with the budget that is due Sept. 30.

Raising both the debt ceiling and budget could mean trouble for Trump's economic stimulus plan. Fiscal conservatives want cuts in government spending with a debt ceiling hike. Those spending cuts would leave little room in the budget for infrastructure spending.

Trump's proposed tax reform could also be in jeopardy in order to prevent a larger deficit and additional borrowing.

That will keep the lights on until about October or November. But after that, the government will run out of money.

The more likely way conditions will be attached to raising the debt ceiling is incorporating proposed budget cuts into the same bill as raising the debt limit, affecting only the current debt ceiling legislation.

Either way, these spending cuts will likely put a limit on how much infrastructure spending Trump will be able to get passed in order to stimulate economic growth.

While a default is not likely, a government shutdown Oct. 1 is highly likely to happen…

By law, the U.S. government must have a budget at the start of each fiscal year, which begins Oct. 1. If a budget is not approved by Congress by that time, the government shuts down.

Even if a full budget is not agreed upon by Oct. 1, a temporary spending measure can be passed. But this would just delay the tension instead of solving the budget fights.

Those fights are likely to stall Trump's agenda as well. Topics like the border wall, Planned Parenthood, and entitlement programs are facing an ideological split down party lines.

Couple the ideological splits with party in-fighting, and getting a majority vote on a budget will be difficult.

This divide along party lines is likely to cause a 2017 government shutdown.

[Benjamin]

Chart: Looking Back At Past Debt Ceiling Crises
By Global X Funds • on April 7, 2017, http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/cha...eiling-crises/

we looked at the performance of various asset classes for the one month period preceding the last two contentious debt ceiling negotiations in 2011 and 2013.

The bond and currency markets showed more consistent reactions in both debt ceiling crises. Treasury and corporate bonds with maturities longer than one year rallied as investors fled to lower risk asset classes and believed that longer term obligations would still be met. The dollar mildly declined in both instances. Not pictured in the chart above (due to scale) are shorter term treasuries, like the 3-month treasury bill which saw yields skyrocket up 800% in 2011 and 900% in 2013 as fears over missed repayments soared.

The US Congressional Budget Office believes the extraordinary measures taken by the Treasury Department should avoid a default until fall 2017. https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/fi...ldebtlimit.pdf

Definition:

US Equities: S&P 500

Emerging Market Equities: MSCI Emerging Markets Index

Asset Class: 10 Year US Treasuries
Index Name: Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index 10+ Year
Definition: The Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index 10+ Year is a rules-based, market-value weighted index engineered to measure the performance and characteristics of fixed rate coupon U.S. Treasuries which have a maturity greater than 10 years.

Asset Class:US Aggregate Bond Index
Index Name: Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Total Return Value Unhedged Index
Definition:The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market.