Traderboersenboard - Einzelnen Beitrag anzeigen - bullen und bären im Dailytalk bei TBB 2006

Benjamin · 05-12-2006, 15:40

NDX-Prognose: http://www.traderboersenboard.de/for...506#post265506

SPX-Prognosen:
Top ca. 1411: http://www.traderboersenboard.de/for...553#post265553
Top ca. 1493: http://www.traderboersenboard.de/for...656#post264656

I still believe this index is consolidating the fast trend up since the July low. This market continues to match in price the previous moves down of 30 points. The index has a high probability of matching previous moves down and will eventually match the previous 56-point move down. This index has a good probability to put in a top of some sort between now and the 11th of December not to exceed 1426 (the last high could be top) and will be followed by the 56 point move down.

Early in the year I gave you a forecast the Dollar Index was going down into June of 2007 and will go to either 73 or 67. Those are huge declines and would take an outside event to bring that about but that is what the charts are telling me. The index is now in a capitulation trend down and will exhaust into a temporary low, possibly as low as 78 and a then another bounce. The long term downtrend has resumed.

We looked at this chart in the beginning of the year and I reported that the rally had only gone up ¼ of the range down (remember this is a monthly chart) and if that was the entire rally the Dollar could manage the fast downtrend was still intact and would go down into June of next year according to the 12 year cycle. I am assuming it will go down below the last low to 72.78 and possibly a worst-case scenario to 67, which would be a real panic and would take an outside event. Short-term support is around 80.4 and 78.2. It is now testing the “obvious” support but if you look closely there were 5 months up and now in one and a half months it has taken back that entire run up and considering the small ¼ retracement this is in a fast trend down. A rally could occur at the “obvious” support as it appears to be capitulating but that rally would be a counter trend and will run down to the 78 price level in this dollar index.

A few weeks ago I indicated this index was exhausting into a top. It went about a week further than I anticipated. You can see it also gave the setup I have been describing with a bounce up from the “obvious” price of the “old high” and has only showed a first-degree counter trend of two days. This is evidence of trending down. Because of the wide range day it could consolidate or rally a bit but only multi day. It could even test the high if it needs further distribution but I believe it will go to the first objective of 1/3 to 3/8 of the entire rally up from June or close to the 6000-price level.

05-12-2006, 15:40	#2026
Benjamin TBB Family Registriert seit: Mar 2004 Beiträge: 10.374	NDX-Prognose: http://www.traderboersenboard.de/for...506#post265506 SPX-Prognosen: Top ca. 1411: http://www.traderboersenboard.de/for...553#post265553 Top ca. 1493: http://www.traderboersenboard.de/for...656#post264656 I still believe this index is consolidating the fast trend up since the July low. This market continues to match in price the previous moves down of 30 points. The index has a high probability of matching previous moves down and will eventually match the previous 56-point move down. This index has a good probability to put in a top of some sort between now and the 11th of December not to exceed 1426 (the last high could be top) and will be followed by the 56 point move down. Early in the year I gave you a forecast the Dollar Index was going down into June of 2007 and will go to either 73 or 67. Those are huge declines and would take an outside event to bring that about but that is what the charts are telling me. The index is now in a capitulation trend down and will exhaust into a temporary low, possibly as low as 78 and a then another bounce. The long term downtrend has resumed. We looked at this chart in the beginning of the year and I reported that the rally had only gone up ¼ of the range down (remember this is a monthly chart) and if that was the entire rally the Dollar could manage the fast downtrend was still intact and would go down into June of next year according to the 12 year cycle. I am assuming it will go down below the last low to 72.78 and possibly a worst-case scenario to 67, which would be a real panic and would take an outside event. Short-term support is around 80.4 and 78.2. It is now testing the “obvious” support but if you look closely there were 5 months up and now in one and a half months it has taken back that entire run up and considering the small ¼ retracement this is in a fast trend down. A rally could occur at the “obvious” support as it appears to be capitulating but that rally would be a counter trend and will run down to the 78 price level in this dollar index. A few weeks ago I indicated this index was exhausting into a top. It went about a week further than I anticipated. You can see it also gave the setup I have been describing with a bounce up from the “obvious” price of the “old high” and has only showed a first-degree counter trend of two days. This is evidence of trending down. Because of the wide range day it could consolidate or rally a bit but only multi day. It could even test the high if it needs further distribution but I believe it will go to the first objective of 1/3 to 3/8 of the entire rally up from June or close to the 6000-price level. Geändert von Benjamin (05-12-2006 um 15:59 Uhr)