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Benjamin · 14-11-2006, 11:55

Three week ago I showed you the cycle that was bringing in the last high and indicated it was going down to test the September low. Whenever a market does a three-thrust wave structure below a high it can be very bearish. Look at that trend closely. It was a weak trend and can be defined as a weak trend because each time the index made a new high it immediately fell back below that high. In the vernacular of the street the index couldn’t “get legs” when it broke to new highs. Weak trends only have three thrusts and can be followed by a fast trend in the opposite direction and change in trend. A weak trend, as this is, can be resolved to the upside as occurred with the European Stock indexes in October. If it isn’t resolved to the upside then there is a bear trend starting. I have no reason to believe a bear trend is starting but the key is holding the September low or higher and no evidence of that yet. Breaking the trendline is meaningless; in fact today could be a low at 150 days and 150 points up from low. I believe the September low will hold but if it doesn’t the index could be headed to 1370 or even 1250. Since weak trends only have three thrusts a move back above that last high will indicate a strong up trend and move to the April high.
Quelle: http://www.mclarenreport.com.au/yvs5...ult.asp?id=883
1 Jahr:

3 Monate:

Big Picture:

Zyklisch betrachtet erwarte ich Ende April/Anfang Mai 2007 ein Low beim Topix wie auch beim Nikkei.

Weitere Charts: http://www.traderboersenboard.de/sho...5&pagenumber=1

Marktberichte:
http://www.traderboersenboard.de/sho...&pagenumber=26
http://www.traderboersenboard.de/sho...i&pagenumber=6

TOPIX und Nikkei 225 im Vergleich:

Japan posts strong quarterly GDP growth
By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch
Nov 14, 2006

Japan's gross domestic product expanded 0.5% in price-adjusted terms in the three-month period ending in September from the previous quarter, or at an annualized rate of 2% , marking the seventh consecutive quarter of growth, Japan's Cabinet Office said Tuesday.
The figures bettered forecasts of zero growth for the September-ending quarter, or 0.1% in annualized terms, cited by Thomson Financial IFR.
Japan's economy is into its longest period of non-interrupted growth since the end of World War II.
Higher capital expenditures by companies, up 2.9% for the quarter , helped offset weak private consumption which fell 0.7% quarter on quarter .
"The corporate sector remains quite healthy; on the other hand Japanese consumers have lost momentum," said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo. "The gap between consumption and fixed investment widened and this reflects a structural problem in Japan."
He said the data pointed to an imbalanced economy characterized by weak household income growth.
"Japanese companies remain quite conservative in hiring and paying wages, but because of that they can enjoy high profit growth and they are spending money on investment," Shirakawa said, adding the figures beat his own forecast of negative quarterly GDP growth of 0.4% when compared to the preceding three-month period.
Other economists, however, attributed the easing in private consumption to a combination of bad weather and other temporary factors.
The report also showed a further easing in the rate of deflation, although prices have yet to turn positive. The GDP deflator, which measures overall changes in prices, fell 0.8% in the quarter from a year earlier, narrower than a revised 1.2% decline in the June-ending quarter.
The data also showed the economy continues to be driven by exports, which rose 2.7% on quarter after growing 0.9% in the previous three months. Imports fell 0.1% on quarter, after growing 1.4% in the April to June period.
Shirakawa said the data supported two opposing views of the health of the economy , but was likely to be read by the Bank of Japan as supportive of additional interest rate hikes.
"Today's numbers, of course, are slightly better than consensus and capital expenditure remains strong, so I think in that situation the Bank of Japan will try to hike the policy rate by January to February next year ," he said.

14-11-2006, 11:55	#1925
Benjamin TBB Family Registriert seit: Mar 2004 Beiträge: 10.373	Three week ago I showed you the cycle that was bringing in the last high and indicated it was going down to test the September low. Whenever a market does a three-thrust wave structure below a high it can be very bearish. Look at that trend closely. It was a weak trend and can be defined as a weak trend because each time the index made a new high it immediately fell back below that high. In the vernacular of the street the index couldn’t “get legs” when it broke to new highs. Weak trends only have three thrusts and can be followed by a fast trend in the opposite direction and change in trend. A weak trend, as this is, can be resolved to the upside as occurred with the European Stock indexes in October. If it isn’t resolved to the upside then there is a bear trend starting. I have no reason to believe a bear trend is starting but the key is holding the September low or higher and no evidence of that yet. Breaking the trendline is meaningless; in fact today could be a low at 150 days and 150 points up from low. I believe the September low will hold but if it doesn’t the index could be headed to 1370 or even 1250. Since weak trends only have three thrusts a move back above that last high will indicate a strong up trend and move to the April high. Quelle: http://www.mclarenreport.com.au/yvs5...ult.asp?id=883 1 Jahr: 3 Monate: Big Picture: Zyklisch betrachtet erwarte ich Ende April/Anfang Mai 2007 ein Low beim Topix wie auch beim Nikkei. Weitere Charts: http://www.traderboersenboard.de/sho...5&pagenumber=1 Marktberichte: http://www.traderboersenboard.de/sho...&pagenumber=26 http://www.traderboersenboard.de/sho...i&pagenumber=6 TOPIX und Nikkei 225 im Vergleich: Japan posts strong quarterly GDP growth By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch Nov 14, 2006 Japan's gross domestic product expanded 0.5% in price-adjusted terms in the three-month period ending in September from the previous quarter, or at an annualized rate of 2% , marking the seventh consecutive quarter of growth, Japan's Cabinet Office said Tuesday. The figures bettered forecasts of zero growth for the September-ending quarter, or 0.1% in annualized terms, cited by Thomson Financial IFR. Japan's economy is into its longest period of non-interrupted growth since the end of World War II. Higher capital expenditures by companies, up 2.9% for the quarter , helped offset weak private consumption which fell 0.7% quarter on quarter . "The corporate sector remains quite healthy; on the other hand Japanese consumers have lost momentum," said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo. "The gap between consumption and fixed investment widened and this reflects a structural problem in Japan." He said the data pointed to an imbalanced economy characterized by weak household income growth. "Japanese companies remain quite conservative in hiring and paying wages, but because of that they can enjoy high profit growth and they are spending money on investment," Shirakawa said, adding the figures beat his own forecast of negative quarterly GDP growth of 0.4% when compared to the preceding three-month period. Other economists, however, attributed the easing in private consumption to a combination of bad weather and other temporary factors. The report also showed a further easing in the rate of deflation, although prices have yet to turn positive. The GDP deflator, which measures overall changes in prices, fell 0.8% in the quarter from a year earlier, narrower than a revised 1.2% decline in the June-ending quarter. The data also showed the economy continues to be driven by exports, which rose 2.7% on quarter after growing 0.9% in the previous three months. Imports fell 0.1% on quarter, after growing 1.4% in the April to June period. Shirakawa said the data supported two opposing views of the health of the economy , but was likely to be read by the Bank of Japan as supportive of additional interest rate hikes. "Today's numbers, of course, are slightly better than consensus and capital expenditure remains strong, so I think in that situation the Bank of Japan will try to hike the policy rate by January to February next year ," he said. Geändert von Benjamin (14-11-2006 um 15:13 Uhr)