Hier ein "genialer" Artikel zu GBP/USD. Auch wenn dort jetzt - analog zu EUR/USD - für eine ganze Weile eine Korrektur läuft (dort dürfte nun auch die C-Welle eines Expanded Falta bawärts gehen), so bleibt der Kurs langfristig betrachtet natürlich weiter "relativ" hoch.
(Z. Z.: 1 US Dollar kostet 1,92 Britisches Pfund)
The $2 Pound May Save U.K. Economy From a Decline
Matthew Lynn, Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) --
For the British, New York will be the cheap place to go shopping this Christmas. The pound is setting records against the dollar almost daily and is already cresting along at decade highs.
Currently at $1.94, it can only be a matter of days before the pound breaks through the $2 barrier, a psychological pivot last seen in 1992.
Periods of exceptional strength don't usually last long for the pound. Nor do they end happily. This time it might be different. The $2 pound may well be with us for a long time, reflecting its emergence as a haven currency.
That will have important consequences for the U.K. economy.
It may allow the consumer boom that has fueled British growth to run longer than it otherwise would have. And it may dig the government out of the hole it has created with its budget deficit , which expanded to 24.1 billion pounds ($46.8 billion) in the fiscal year starting in April, based on figures released last month.
The pound's climb against the dollar is already three years old. The currency dipped below $1.40 in 2001 and has been rising steadily ever since.
That mostly reflects the weakness of the dollar -- while rising against the U.S. currency, the pound has fallen 3 percent against the euro in the past six months. So the increase in value of the pound doesn't reflect any new faith in the U.K. economy. It is part of the sell-off of the dollar, which has been falling in value against just about everything: the euro, the yen, an ounce of gold or a barrel of oil. The pound has been caught up in that.
Pound's Peaks
How does this compare with the last great period of sterling strength against the dollar? That was in 1991 and 1992. The pound went to more than $2 from about $1.60. Then by the start of 1993, it fell to almost $1.40. It hovered near the $2 mark for less than two weeks in September 1992 before starting its slide. Before that, the pound touched $2.44 in 1980, then fell steeply in 1981. In both the early 1980s and early 1990s, periods of strength were followed by economic weakness.
The lesson? That periods of sterling strength are usually short-lived. If and when the pound breaks through the $2 mark, history suggests that is the time to sell.
Unless, this time, it is different.
It is certainly easy enough to make out a bear case against the pound. It suffers from many of the same structural problems as the dollar. The U.K. may have a relatively fast-growing, high- employment economy -- rather like the U.S. -- yet it is also running a big trade deficit, which was 4.5 billion pounds in September. And its budget deficit is about 3 percent of gross domestic product. To make matters worse, Chancellor Gordon Brown has chosen to ignore it.
`Shorting the Pound'
Twin deficits, and politicians who appear unconcerned? We all know what country that sounds like.
``The foreign exchange markets could switch from bashing the U.S. dollar to shorting the pound, especially if the dollar is stabilized by higher U.S. rates and the prospect that President Bush will announce major social security reforms and a move towards a flat-rate income tax next year,'' said David Smith, chief economist at London-based brokerage Williams de Broe Plc, in a note to investors last week.
The markets paid no attention to the U.S. deficits for many years, then decided to hammer the currency. So just because they have ignored the U.K.'s shortfalls for years, it doesn't follow that they always will. Just as in the U.S., sooner or later those deficits will have to be fixed. A currency adjustment would be part of that.
The Bull Case
Yet that may be a long way off.
In the meantime, it is just as easy to make a bull case for sterling.
The U.K. has one of the fastest-growing economies in the world -- 3.1 percent compared with 1.3 percent in Germany and 2 percent in France in the third quarter compared with a year earlier.
It has higher interest rates -- 4.75 percent compared with just 2 percent in the euro area, and almost zero percent in Japan. So, if you don't want to hold dollars, why not put your money into sterling? It has better growth prospects than the euro or yen, and better returns as well.
It is only a mild exaggeration to say that sterling is starting to have something of the Swiss franc's old role as a haven currency -- somewhere to stash your cash when all the other options look worse.
So don't expect a sudden slide in sterling once it passes the $2 barrier.
Asian Imports
For the British economy, that is important. As Charles Bean, chief economist at the Bank of England, pointed out in a lecture last month,
the U.K. has benefited mightily from the gathering strength of sterling in the last few years .
``The international terms of trade -- that is the price of the goods and services we export relative to the price of those we import -- has moved in our favour,'' Bean said.
A strong pound will hurt manufacturing exporters to the U.S. and Asia. Yet that is now a relatively minor part of the U.K. economy. The biggest impact may turn out to be on the cost of the U.K.'s imports. Since some Asian currencies are pegged to the dollar, the pound is strong against those as well.
The result? The cheap Asia-manufactured imports, which have helped fuel the British consumer boom, are about to get even cheaper. That will keep a lid on inflation and ensure that the shopping malls are crowded through 2005.
At the same time, a strong pound will help the government fund its budget deficit. Just at the point where the U.K. economy looked poised for a sharp slowdown, a strong pound has ridden to the rescue.
The U.K.'s twin deficits may well worsen. Yet the markets will worry about that another day.