If Jeremy Grantham Has a Changing Heart on Value Investing, Should You?
June 30, 2017 at 7:00 am by Julex Capital,
https://www.etftrends.com/if-jeremy-...ng-should-you/
Zitat:
Figure 1 illustrates the historical cyclically-adjusted price earnings ratio (CAPE) since 1881. CAPE was calculated by Yale Professor Robert Shiller by using average earnings over a 10-year time frame instead of the trailing twelve-month earnings to remove the cyclicality of corporate earnings.
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Zitat:
In summary, valuation may not be a good timing indicator for asset allocation because the mean valuation metrics tend to be unstable over time. In the last twenty years, as Mr. Grantham suggested, higher profit margin, as a result of globalization and increasing corporate power, may allow for higher valuation than the historical norm. Unfortunately, this change of mean was only recognized after the fact.
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Zitat:
if you are expecting a quick or explosive market decline in the S&P 500 that will return us to pre-1997 ratios (perhaps because that is the kind of thing that happened in the past), then you should at least be prepared to be frustrated for some considerable further time: until you can feel the process of the real interest rate structure moving back up toward its old level.
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https://www.gurufocus.com/news/51369...ght-experiment