Wednesday, May 12, 2004 2:42 GMT
Daily Report
By Ian Copsey, FX-Strategy
http://www.fx-strategy.com
Elliott Wave Comment:
We tend to see the move down from 1.2387 to 1.1758 as Wave [i] of Wave C. This has quite bearish implications and we need to assess the structure of the decline to confirm this strength of bearishness. Wave [i] therefore ended at 1.2180 (just short of a 38.2% retracement) and this should lead to losses over time. We see potential targets at 1.1505 minimum but more likely a move as low as 1.1310 and eventually 1.1160 is likely over a longer period of time.
Daily Cycles:
The cyclic structure looks bearish and should continue for around 2 weeks. Although the blue cycle is rising the larger red cycle is now declining along with the two shorter cycles. Thus the momentum lower should increase over time.
General Outlook:
Having seen the 1.22-1.24 area consistently produce downward reactions we continue with the general bearish outlook but consider that the downside should become stronger over the coming weeks. While the 1.2200 area continues to hold look for the losses to move down to 1.1160 at least.