[Benjamin]

Hallo, Ihr beiden,

habe auch noch mal kurz nachgeschaut, weil der Yen immer stärker statt schwächer wird. Unten ist es als gesammelte Werke angefügt.

Der Verdacht beschleicht mich, dass es evtl. doch keine "wirkliche" Dollar-Rally zum Yen geben wird, weil schon einige Profis den Braten riechen und ihre Positionen herunterfahren. Außerdem nähern wir uns den 105, wo nun wirklich jeder mit Intervention rechnet - da ist ein Short-Squeeze zu höheren Kursen unwahrscheinlich, weil alle Welt recht engmaschig bereits bei tiefen Kursen absichert.

Ich habe Schwierigkeiten, die Wellen der letzten Tage nach Elliott eindeutig zu benennen. Es gibt mehrere Möglichkeiten, also kann man nur mit Stop-Levels arbeiten, von daher keine neue Aussage gegenüber meinem Elliott-Chart oben.
Aber: Taktisch/fundamental kann man sich natürlich fragen, was denn den Dollar noch einmal so stärken kann, dass ein Euro-Kurs von z. B. 1,2080 erreicht wird - wenn die BoJ als Treibmittel nicht so recht da sein sollte? Und wenn da also Zeifel kommen - dann ergibt sich die Frage, ob der Stop-Buy nicht tiefer als 1,2465 liegen sollte.


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Beobachter gehen aber unterdessen davon aus, dass sich die japanischen Behörden vorerst - auch angesichts wachsenden Drucks seitens der USA - mit Devisenmarktinterventionen zurückhalten werden. Am Montagvormittag notierte der Yen bei etwas über 107,00 JPY je Dollar, verglichen mit 106,65 JPY im späten Freitagshandel in New York.
vwd/DJ/22.3.2004/ptr/gs
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``There will be some volatility in the yen as people believe Japan will intervene before the end of the fiscal year'' on March 31, Hans Guenter Redeker, head of currency strategy in London at BNP Paribas SA, said in an interview.

Japan's government, which suggested last week it will scale back sales of the currency, is reluctant to let the yen extend its gains to 105 per dollar, said Hiroyuki Yamada, who helps manage $1 billion in overseas debt at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo. The yen rose 4.8 percent in the two weeks to Friday.

``Letting the yen go through 105 would be a contradiction to all the effort that's been made,'' said Yamada at Daiwa.

Eighty-five percent of the 61 investors, traders and strategists polled from Tokyo to New York on Friday advised buying or holding the yen against the dollar. (Ruft das nicht geradezu nach dem Gegenteil - bei 85%? IMO Gefährlich einseitige Ausrichtung, wenn sie denn representativ ist.) Among those who provided a recommendation on the yen versus the euro, a majority said they would buy or hold Japan's currency.

The following survey, taken on Friday, gauges demand for five currencies against the U.S. dollar:

BUY SELL HOLD
Euro 30 11 20
Yen 32 9 20

Overseas investors were net buyers of Japanese equities for a 12th week in 13 in the five days ended March 12, according to Tokyo Stock Exchange figures. In the previous week, investors abroad bought a record weekly amount of Japanese shares.
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March 22 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell for the first day in more than a week in Asia on concern Japan may sell its currency to keep it weaker than 105 to the dollar ahead of the end of the fiscal year on March 31.
A stronger yen decreases earnings on overseas sales in local currency terms. Toyota Motor Corp. forecast in November the yen will average 112 per dollar for the fiscal year ending March 31. The yen has averaged 113.19 per dollar so far this business year.



Gegenargumente:

``Recent economic data out of Europe has been nothing but weak, increasing the possibility the ECB will cut rates,'' said Kikuko Takeda, manager of foreign exchange in Tokyo at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. Japan's economy grew 6.4 percent last quarter, the fastest pace in 13 years, as consumer spending and business investment rose.

``Given the Japanese recovery, it would require vast amounts of yen selling for the currency to weaken,'' said Edwin Truman, 62, senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington and a former assistant secretary of the Treasury for international affairs in the Clinton administration.

``Despite the recent gains in the currency, Japanese stocks remain attractive'' said Paresh Upadhyaya, 32, who helps manage $70 billion as a currency strategist at Putnam Investments in Boston. ``There's more confidence inside Japan on the economic recovery, and people are beginning to question whether selling yen is the best use for all that money.''

Yen May Rise for Third Week as Demand for Japanese Stocks Grows
March 22 (Bloomberg) -- The yen may rise for a third week against the dollar as a rebound in Japan's economy spurs demand for the country's stocks and as Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's government scales back its currency sales.

Eighty-five percent of the 61 investors, traders and strategists polled from Tokyo to New York on Friday advised buying or holding the yen against the dollar. Among those who provided a recommendation on the yen versus the euro, a majority said they would buy or hold Japan's currency.

``Given the Japanese recovery, it would require vast amounts of yen selling for the currency to weaken,'' said Edwin Truman, 62, senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington and a former assistant secretary of the Treasury for international affairs in the Clinton administration.

Against the dollar, the yen rose to 106.72 at 5 p.m. in New York from Friday, according to EBS prices, a gain of 3.9 percent from the previous week. The yen, which is up 13 percent in the past year, gained at least 1.7 percent this week against all 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

In the survey, 95 percent of the participants recommended investors buy or hold the Swiss franc against the dollar and 82 percent advised that strategy for the euro. The dollar fell 1.2 percent last week compared with the franc and dropped 0.6 percent versus the euro to $1.2291, the first decline in five weeks.

Demand for Yen

Japan's economy grew 6.4 percent last quarter, the fastest pace in 13 years, as consumer spending and business investment rose. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average has gained 7 percent so far this year, compared with a 0.2 percent drop in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and a 1.3 percent fall in the FTSE 100.

Overseas investors were net buyers of Japanese equities for a 12th week in 13 in the five days ended March 12, according to Tokyo Stock Exchange figures. In the previous week, investors abroad bought a record weekly amount of Japanese shares.

Merrill Lynch & Co. said last week that international investors polled by the company are the most enthusiastic about Japanese stocks than at any time since 1999.

``Despite the recent gains in the currency, Japanese stocks remain attractive'' said Paresh Upadhyaya, 32, who helps manage $70 billion as a currency strategist at Putnam Investments in Boston. ``There's more confidence inside Japan on the economic recovery, and people are beginning to question whether selling yen is the best use for all that money.''

Upadhyaya, a participant in the Bloomberg survey, said he is recommending investors hold yen versus the U.S. dollar.

`Tug of War'

Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said three times last week that Japan isn't seeking to weaken its currency, heightening speculation the Ministry of Finance is trimming dollar purchases.

He said sales will be limited to reducing ``speculative'' swings in the yen. Japan sold 10.5 trillion yen ($94 billion) in the two months ended Feb. 25 to stem the currency's appreciation, about half the record sum sold last year.

``Now that the MOF appears to be stepping back from the market, we're back to the fundamentals,'' which show an economic rebound, said David Bloom, 39, a strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc in London. ``That means the dollar will resume its slide.''

Xinyi Lu at UFJ Bank Ltd. in Tokyo, is among strategists who predict Japan will resume selling at about 105 to the dollar.

``Japan is probably looking for a right moment to stop selling its currency, but it's not yet ready to do so because that will cause the yen to advance too far and too fast,'' said Lu, 46. ``We'll soon see a tug of war between the market and Japanese authorities, leaving the yen teetering around 105.''

Reducing Bets

Futures traders reduced bets that the yen will fall against the dollar. Yen net shorts slipped to about 31,400, from about 34,500 a week earlier, according to figures released on Friday by the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
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A Mizuho broker said: “Somebody out there is going to test Japanese resolve this week by smashing away at the 105 level.

The dollar will dip below that and the authorities will be pushed into doing something. That is how the market will find out where it stands.”

However, the new MoF strategy, Tokyo government insiders say, will probably come as a series of “stealth attacks” on yen strength.

The MoF will appear to stand back from the sort of grand interventions previously made and will let the dollar/yen rate swing with what would previously have been intolerable volatility.

By seeming to remove the intervention safety net that many traders have come to rely on, the MoF hopes to make the yen/dollar game too risky for big speculators, and so remove their influence. With that done, the theory goes, smaller and surprise dollar-buying runs will have more effect. Already, traders in Tokyo were last week complaining that the yen/dollar markets no longer felt “safe”.

Analysts attach significance to a remark last week by Sadakazu Tanigaki, Finance Minister, that Japan had “no intention of continuing to intervene out of mere habit”.

There is now a strong belief among investors that, after stern US criticism of recent interventions, Tokyo and Washington have made a pact that will ensure some stability for rates. Under its terms, say analysts, the US may have agreed to return to active support of its “strong-dollar” stance while Japan will have agreed to limit the rate at which it uses its vast dollar cashpile to buy US treasuries.

Last week’s currency turmoil arose chiefly from the apparent decision by the MoF to call a halt to its record intervention spree. That spree had seen Japan make nearly £100 billion of interventions to support the dollar last year, and half that sum in this year’s first two months. Japanese reports suggested that the process had now run its course, and that the true aim of the interventions — supporting Japanese exporters and business sentiment by delivering a weaker yen — had been served.

These reports were played down by the MoF and the Bank of Japan, which said that Japan would continue to use intervention to ease yen/dollar fluctuations. However, as the dollar slid to a one-month low, the absence of Japanese intervention came as a shock.