Traderboersenboard - China Banks

Traderboersenboard (http://www.f-tor.de/tbb/index.php)

- Amerika, Asien (http://www.f-tor.de/tbb/forumdisplay.php?f=13)

- - China Banks (http://www.f-tor.de/tbb/showthread.php?t=40811)

Banks

Top-Bestandteile des Hang Seng China H-Financials Index, siehe http://www.hsi.com.hk/HSI-Net/static.../FS_HFINe.pdf:
CNE1000002H1 CCB
CNE1000003G1 ICBC
CNE1000001Z5 Bank of China
CNE1000003X6 Ping An
CNE1000002L3 China Life
CNE1000002M1 CM Bank
CNE100000Q43 ABC
CNE1000009Q7 CPIC
CNE100000593 PICC P&C
CNE100000205 Bankcomm
CNE100000HF9 Minsheng Bank

Alle in €:
China Construction Bank (CNE1000002H1 CCB)
Industr. & Commerc.Bk of China (CNE1000003G1 ICBC)
Bank of China Ltd. CNE1000001Z5
China Merchants Bank Co. Ltd. (CNE1000002M1 CM Bank)

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

China Bank Stocks Are Rallying Too Fast for Comfort
Shuli Ren
29 January 2018,
https://www.bloombergquint.com/globa...st-for-comfort

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
China's financial system harbours large risks, says IMF
7 December 2017
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42263737

Zitat:

A stress test on China's banks found four-fifths were vulnerable.

China's "big four" banks had adequate capital but "large, medium, and city-commercial banks appear vulnerable", the IMF said.

The stress tests covered banks holding 171tn yuan ($26tn; £19tn) in total assets, and 27 out of the 33 tested needed to raise more funds, despite already complying with Basel III regulations on bank capitalisation.
The IMF warned in October that China's dependence on debt was growing at a "dangerous pace".

Zitat:

China's debt has ballooned and is now equivalent to 234% of the country's total output, according to the IMF.

Zitat:

The IMF also warned against the rapid development of new financial products, which it said could "very rapidly become large and popular and potentially a systemic risk".
The Fund says better co-ordination among supervisors was essential to contain the "grave" risks posed by innovative products.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

China propping up growth is fuelling soaring debt, IMF says
Beijing should stop shoring up unviable sectors of economy and concentrate on financial stability and minimising risks, according to international lender

PUBLISHED : Thursday, 07 December, 2017, 10:46am
UPDATED : Thursday, 07 December, 2017, 2:49pm
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/econo...-debt-says-imf

Chinese banks, while meeting Basel requirements, should gradually increase their capital to create buffers to absorb potential losses that can be expected during China’s economic transition as credit is tightened and implicit guarantees are removed, the IMF said.

There are widespread perceptions of implicit guarantees, the fund said, with banks often compensating retail investors for losses and lenders assuming that loss-making state-owned enterprises or financial intermediaries will be bailed out.
Banks also need to hold more liquid assets, the fund said.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

China's ballooning debt is a major threat to global financial stability, IMF warns
Will Martin, Business Insider UK, http://www.businessinsider.de/imf-re...7-12?r=UK&IR=T
7.12.2017

Zitat:

China's ballooning levels of debt and dependency on credit to fuel growth continues to pose a major financial stability threat to the global economy, and could be the catalyst for the next crisis, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Zitat:

"Credit growth has outpaced GDP growth, leading to a large credit overhang. The credit-to-GDP ratio is now about 25% above the long-term trend, very high by international standards and consistent with a high probability of financial distress.

"As a result, corporate debt has reached 165% of GDP, and household debt, while still low, has risen by 15 percentage points of GDP over the past five years and is increasingly linked to asset-price speculation. The buildup of credit in traditional sectors has gone hand-in-hand with a slowdown of productivity growth and pressures on asset quality.”

Zitat:

"A reluctance among financial institutions to allow retail investors to take losses; the expectation that the government stands behind debt issued by state-owned enterprises and local government financing vehicles; efforts to stabilize stock and bond markets in times of volatility; and protection funds for various financial institutions, have all contributed to moral hazard and excessive risk-taking."

Zitat:

"International experience suggests that China’s credit growth is on a dangerous trajectory, with increasing risks of a disruptive adjustment or a marked growth slowdown," a report said.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Guaranteed repayment – the wild financial game no Chinese bank can afford to lose
The central bank wants to put a stop to the unspoken promise of 100 per cent bailouts in the wealth management industry but no one wants to be the first to blink

PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 22 November, 2017, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/econo...inese-bank-can

Zitat:

China Orient Asset Management chief economist Wu Qing said Chinese investors were used to “risk-free” and guaranteed repayment products. “If the guarantee is removed, it will be much more difficult to sell wealth management products,” he said.

Wu said new financial products, such as credit default swaps, should be developed to help spread risk. “Banks can attach an insurance scheme or even valuation adjustment mechanism for clients,” he said.

Wu Qi, a senior researcher at the Pangoal Institution, said guaranteed payments were an outgrowth of China’s changing financial landscape, where digital technology meant investors could shift money from one bank to another with a few clicks or swipes on their mobile phones. As a result, banks had to woo clients with promises of high returns and safety, he said.

Finanztechnologie (englisch financial technology, verkürzt zu Fintech bzw. FinTech) ist ein Sammelbegriff für technologisch weiterentwickelte Finanzinnovationen, die in neuen Finanzinstrumenten, -dienstleistungen oder -intermediären resultieren.
Finanztechnologie wird meist von Start-up-Unternehmen und jungen Unternehmen angewandt. Diese versuchen, etablierten Wettbewerbern wie beispielsweise Banken Marktanteile abzunehmen. Hierbei streben die neuen Anbieter typischerweise an, ihr Geschäft ohne Banklizenz betreiben zu können, da die hohen Anforderungen der Bankenregulierung eine deutliche Markteintrittshürde darstellen. Den Verbrauchern wird ermöglicht, ohne Mittelsmann direkt über das Internet beispielsweise Geld anzulegen, einen Kredit aufzunehmen, Bezahlvorgänge abzuschließen oder eine Finanzberatung (vgl. Robo-Advisory) in Anspruch zu nehmen.
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finanztechnologie

ORDER FROM CHAOS
What’s happening with China’s fintech industry?
Wei Wang and David DollarThursday, February 8, 2018
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order...tech-industry/

In effect, the country has leapfrogged from cash to mobile payments, bypassing the payment cards system.

Behind China’s fintech miracle lies the country’s unique technology ecosystem: a tech-savvy population, an underdeveloped banking industry, and an initially relaxed regulatory environment.

Zitat:

China’s remarkably unsophisticated banks stand in marked contrast to its well-developed technological infrastructure and soaring demand for financial services. For a long time, commercial banks in China, which are mostly state-owned, have focused mainly on servicing Chinese state-owned enterprises, neglecting the growing financial needs of small-to-medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and ordinary Chinese people with rapidly accumulating wealth. According to World Bank data, in 2014 only 9.6 percent of Chinese adults had access to credit from a financial institution, which includes not only banks, but also credit unions, cooperatives, and microfinance institutions.

Fintech firms, noticing this surplus of underserved individuals and SMEs, have stepped in to fill the void. Mobile payments and online lending, which directly address consumers’ spending and credit demands, are the two most prominent sectors in the Chinese fintech industry.

Zitat:

China has become the global leader in online lending, accounting for three-quarters of the global market. The majority of China’s online lending is peer-to-peer (P2P). Online lending platforms connect potential borrowers with lenders who are seeking returns higher than bank-offered interest rates.

Absence of regulation sparked the boom but also gave rise to a market brimming with scams and high-risk financial models.

By any measure, China has become the world leader in the fintech industry.
Alibaba, the world’s largest e-commerce firm

Hang Seng Finance Index, WKN: 145735
Dessen Zusammensetzung siehe angehängte Abbildung.
Im März 2019 war das Zwischenhoch eines Abwärtsimpulses (Beginn Anfang 2018), und zwar

entweder bereits als Welle 4 (dann wäre die folgende Abwärtsbewegung in Dynamik und Kursziel nur "moderat")
oder erst als sehr hoch gelaufene Welle 2 (dann käme nun geradezu ein Absturz, hoch dynamisch und tief, dürfte in diesem Falle nicht mehr (viel) über 40.793 gehen, also keine Wellenüberschneidung mit den Lows in Q1 von 2018).

Besorgnis erregende Artikel zu Chinas Banken:

25.02.2019: https://de.sputniknews.com/kommentar...mmt-aus-asien/
04.03.2019: https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik.../24055426.html
March 21, 2019: http://www.chinabankingnews.com/2019...me-since-2011/
March 20, 2019: http://www.chinabankingnews.com/2019...er-benchmarks/
March 18, 2019: China’s Banks Have a Hidden Wave of Bad Debt, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china...6FpxyXP5Ae2LH_

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1
18m:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1
14m:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1
6m:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1
3m:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

Vergleich:
China:
https://www.ftor.de/tbb/attachment.p...1&d=1553460842
USA:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=bIb

Faktor 2.0x Short auf China Construction Bank, DE000MF722B7, endlos

Emissionstag 18.09.18
Emittent Morgan Stanley
Spread 6,43 % :deal:

all data:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

BASISWERT: CHINA CONSTRCT BanK-H: ISIN CNE1000002H1
Börse: Indikation Commerzbank, in €:

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1
6m, Indikation Commerzbank:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1
6m, Börse Frankfurt:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1
3m, Indikation Commerzbank:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

Als Referenz: ETFS 3x Daily Short FTSE China 50 (CH3S)
three times daily leveraged 'short' exposure to FTSE China 50 Index TR USD (FTSE China 50) by tracking the FTSE China 50 3x Daily Short Index (the "Index").
https://www.wisdomtree.eu/de-de/prod...-ftse-china-50
ISIN JE00B97D3F07
Replizierung: Synthetisch, Fully Funded Swap
Rechtsform: Inhaberschuldverschreibung
Produktart: ETC
Heimische Aufsichtsbehörde (Prospekt): Financial Conduct Authority (FCA UK)
Gebühren:

MER 0.98%
Ausgabeaufschlag / Rücknahmegebühren Keine, wenn über Börse gehandelt