Traderboersenboard - In 10 years - 2025 (English only)

11 predictions for what the world will look like in 10 years

1) Russia will collapse

Zitat:

“There will not be an uprising against Moscow, but Moscow’s withering ability to support and control the Russian Federation will leave a vacuum. What will exist in this vacuum will be the individual fragments of the Russian Federation, ”

Stratfor warns.

Zitat:

Formal and informal fragmentation of Russia: It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form.”

Reasons for weakening Russia’s central government:

Sanctions
declining oil prices (WTI)
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN
a plunging ruble (RUB/USD)
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN
rising military expenses
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...2012_SIPRI.jpg
Source: wikimedia.org/wikipedia
increasing internal discord

The RTS Index (USD)(RTSI) is the official indicator of Moscow Exchange. It was first calculated on September 1, 1995.
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN
http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/la...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

RTS (USD) dargestellt in EUR mittels Zertifikat WKN: DR0QUK, 57 Monate:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

RDX Russian Depositary Index (EUR):
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

Währung:

RUB/USD:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN
RUB/EUR:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN

Statsanleihe:
Russische Föderation DL-Notes 2010(20) Reg.S, WKN: A1AWTB, Währung USD
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN

2) US will have to use its influence to secure Russia’s nukes

If Russia disintegrates, the breakout of its nuclear weapons stockpile will be “the greatest crisis of the next decade”.

Zitat:

“Washington is the only power able to address the issue, but it will not be able to seize control of the vast numbers of sites militarily and guarantee that no missile is fired in the process,”

the report states.

The United States will

either have to invent a military solution that is difficult to conceive of now,
accept the threat of rogue [unpredictable, outside normal controls] launches,
or try to create a stable and economically viable government in the regions involved to neutralise the missiles over time.”

3) Germany to suffer severe economic reversals

Being an export-dependent economy, Germany has the most to lose from a worsening Euro crisis and a resulting wave of “Euroscepticism.”

Germany is expected to suffer severe economic reversals in the next decade.

Zitat:

Germany is the center of gravity of the European Union:

it exports more than 50 percent of its GDP, and
half of that goes to other EU countries.
Germany has created a productive capability that vastly outstrips its ability to consume, even if the domestic economy were stimulated.
Germany is the world's fourth-largest economic power, but it has achieved that status by depending on exports. Export powers have a built-in vulnerability: They depend on their customers' desire and ability to buy their products. In other words, Germany's economy is hostage to the economic well-being and competitive environment in which it operates.

Germany depends on these exports to maintain economic growth, full employment and social stability. The European Union's structures — including the pricing of the euro and many European regulations — are designed to facilitate this export dependency.

There are multiple forces working against Germany, leading to extended economic decline in Germany that will lead to a domestic social and political crisis during the next 10 years:

Europe's increasing nationalism --> protectionist capital and labor markets.
- Weaker countries: adopt capital controls
- stronger countries limit the movement of foreigners +citizens of other EU countries across their borders.
Existing protectionist policies inside the European Union (agriculture) will be supplemented by trade barriers created by the weaker Southern European economies
European exports to face increased competition and highly variable demand.

4) There will be several Europes

https://www.ftor.de/tbb/attachment.p...1&d=1482396381
They will be increasingly estranged from one another.

The driving forces within Europe are national in nature, and countries will ultimately put their own interests first. Unfortunately, the flaw provides no guide as to the exact circumstances of the system's end. For example:

The project could unravel via market forces (as it nearly did in 2012 when investors tested the commitment of the core to save the periphery and found it to be (barely) willing to do so)
Or a disaffected populace (unzufriedene Bevölkerung) could elect a nationalist party such as France's National Front, which could either lead the country out of the European Union or make the bloc so unmanageable that it ceases to function.
Perhaps the most likely scenario at this point would be for the European Union to survive as a ghost of its former self, with its laws ignored and stripped back to the extent that it holds only a loose grip on its members.

Zitat:

“The European Union might survive in some sense, but European economic, political, and military relations will be governed primarily by bilateral or limited multilateral relationships that will be small in scope and not binding,” the report said.

Result: a highly modified European Union that will not define Europe.

The European Union will be unable to solve its fundamental problem, the free trade zone.

Europe has fragmented into at least two parts with have completely different behavioral patterns and needs:

Mediterranean Europe and
countries such as Germany and Austria

No single policy can suit all of Europe. This has been the core problem from the beginning, but it has now reached an extreme point. What benefits one part of Europe harms another.

Fragmentation and nationalism is clearly evident:

Nationalism has risen significantly,
a rise of Euroskeptic parties on the right and left,
growing delegitimation of mainstream parties
surging popularity of separatist parties within European countries

Results as these trends will continue:

The European Union might survive in some sense, but European economic, political and military relations will be governed primarily by bilateral or limited multilateral relationships that will be small in scope and not binding.
Some states might maintain a residual membership in a highly modified European Union, but this will not define Europe.
The re-emergence of the nation-state as the primary political vehicle of the continent: The number of nation-states will likely increase as
- various movements favoring secession,
- or the dissolution of states into constituent parts, increase their power.
This will be particularly noticeable during the next few years, as economic and political pressures intensify amid Europe's crisis.

Zitat:

Europe's increasing nationalism will lead to protectionist capital and labor markets.

Weaker countries are likely to adopt various sorts of capital controls,
while stronger countries will limit the movement of foreigners — including the citizens of other EU countries — across their borders.

We forecast that existing protectionist policies inside the European Union, particularly on agriculture, will be supplemented in coming years by trade barriers created by the weaker Southern European economies that need to rebuild their economic base after the current depression.
On a global basis, we can expect European exports to face increased competition and highly variable demand in the uncertain environment.

Therefore, our forecast is that Germany will begin an extended economic decline that will lead to a domestic social and political crisis and that will reduce Germany's influence in Europe during the next 10 years.

The Benelux, France and Germany will be motivated to continue their integration efforts. Meanwhile, France and Germany's rivalry will also draw them together. However, the fateful fact here is that the Franco-German relationship has been one of the major fault lines in the current European Union, meaning that a smaller version of the bloc will be similarly flawed.

The Franco-German-Benelux bloc is the likely heir to the euro, if the currency continues to exist:

It will maintain the European Union's integrationist ethos.
It will adopt a more positive stance toward free trade than its predecessor, with the Netherlands and Germany outweighing the protectionist urges of Belgium and a France shorn of its traditional Mediterranean allies.
This "core" bloc will be the Continent's center of gravity in the future.
Germany appears set to keep dominating the Continent for at least the next decade or two. Germany's influence in Europe is not purely geopolitical. A large part of it is based on trade.

The relationship emerging to Germany's east and southeast is one in which the free movement of goods and capital is encouraged, but the free movement of people is restricted. The influx of refugees into Europe has recently rekindled this friction. The Visegrad Group bonds over a mutual aversion to Germany's attempts to dole out quotas of newly arrived migrants:

Hungary
Slovakia
the Czech Republic
Poland

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ntries.svg.png
The Visegrad Group http://www.visegradgroup.eu/ is an alliance of the four Central European states mentioned above for the purposes of furthering their European integration, as well as for advancing military, economic and energy cooperation with one another.
Visegrad cooperation is not institutionalized in any manner. It is based solely on the principle of periodical meetings of its representatives at various levels. The only solid organization of the Visegrád co-operation is the International Visegrád Fund (IVF), established in 1999, with its seat in Bratislava. According to a decision of the prime ministers, the Fund has an annual budget of EUR 8 million as of 2014 (the fund awards grants, scholarships and research fellowships, and artist residencies).

European trade:
https://www.ftor.de/tbb/attachment.p...1&d=1482396169
Germany has assembled a powerful international goods factory:

It takes unfinished products from its neighbors (eight of whom send Germany more than 20 percent of their exports)
and transforms them into sophisticated mechanical goods before shipping them onward.
In 2014, Germany was the number one export destination for 14 of its 27 EU peers, and the top source of imports for 15 of them.
Access to this machine has especially benefited former communist states in Central and Eastern Europe, which have capitalized on high levels of investment from Germany (as well as the Netherlands and Austria) and capital inflows to achieve impressive GDP growth.
European Union or no, the players in this network will all be highly motivated to keep it running.

Scandinavia will form its own bloc. Its members have a history of shared empires, free trade, freedom of movement agreements and a (failed) currency union. The institution "Nordic Council" already exists to aid their international governance: https://www.norden.org/en/

Zitat:

The Nordic Council is a geo-political inter-parliamentary forum for co-operation between the Nordic countries. It was formed after the Second World War in 1952 to promote co-operation between the five Nordic countries. Its first concrete result was the introduction in 1952 of a common labour market and free movement across borders without passports for the countries' citizens.

The Council consists of 87 representatives from

Denmark,
Finland,
Iceland,
Norway and
Sweden as well as
the autonomous areas of the Faroe Islands, Greenland and the Åland Islands.

The representatives are members of parliament in their respective country/area and are elected by those parliaments.
https://www.ftor.de/tbb/attachment.p...1&d=1482400529

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordic_Council
This bloc is likely to be almost or equally as integrated as the French- and German-led core, with which it will have close trade and diplomatic relations.

The OMX Nordic 40 (OMXN40) is a stock market index for the pan-regional (virtual) Nordic Stock Exchange. It is a capitalization-weighted index, created on October 2, 2006, that consists of the 40 most-traded stock classes of shares from the four stock markets operated by the OMX Group in the Nordic countries - Copenhagen, Helsinki, Reykjavík and Stockholm (although no Icelandic companies currently feature). The base date for the index is December 28, 2001, with a base value of 1000. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OMX_Nordic_40
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

Spain and Italy

likely to be left behind
struggling to stay whole, with Spain in particular danger of coming apart at the seams because of the internal conflicts raging among its constituent parts.
Both will attempt to remain as close as possible to the core, though protectionist tendencies in the southern countries may inhibit these trading relationships.
Out of the €: Spain and Italy are also likely to enjoy the newly regained freedom of being able to devalue their own currencies to regain competitiveness.
From the core bloc's perspective: a continuing point of tension, with France pushing for their inclusion as Germany and the Netherlands resist. But time will work in France's favor here, since its advantageous demographics compared with those of Germany point to it gaining increasing influence over the bloc as the years pass. France will be put in the difficult position of having to choose between either remaining close to Germany or standing with its Mediterranean allies.

Portugal stock index: PSI 20 Index:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

Spain stock index: IBEX 35 Index:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

XX:SXXP - STOXX Europe 600 Index EUR:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...579&mocktick=1

DAX-Kursindex:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN

EUR/USD:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

EURO BUND FUTURE (FGBL)/C1:
http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/la...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

Umlaufrendite:
http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/la...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

5) Poland will be one of Europe’s leaders

economic growth
increasing political influence (incl. longstanding strategic partnership with the US)
Poland’s population is not likely to decline as much as those of the other major European economies
is the largest and most prosperous European state on Russia’s western border

Result: regional leadership.

PL:WIG - Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Index
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...579&mocktick=1

EUR/PLN - Euro im Vergleich zum Polnischer Zloty
1 Euro kostet 4,17 Polnischer Zloty
http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/la...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

Staatsanleihe:
Polen, Republik EO-Medium-Term Notes 2005(20), Währung EUR, WKN: A0DW7H,
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN

6) Turkey and US will be close allies for an unexpected reason

Turkey will want US help in keeping Moscow out of its backyard.

Zitat:

“The United States will oblige, but there will be a price: participation in the containment of Russia. The United States does not expect Turkey to assume a war-fighting role and does not intend one for itself. It does, however, want a degree of cooperation in managing the Black Sea.”

Zitat:

Further, several Arab countries will remain in a state of free-fall and the major beneficiary from all of this will be Turkey, the report said.

TRY/USD: https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN
ISE 100 Aktienindex: https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN
Türkei, Republik EO-Notes 2007(19) (EUR): https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN

7) China will face a huge problem

China’s growth hasn’t been geographically distributed evenly; this problem will only get worse as China continues to urbanise:

coastal cities thriving,
the interior has less access to international markets and is comparatively poorer.

Zitat:

There is an unlikely but “still conceivable outcome in which political interests along the coast rebel against Beijing’s policy of transferring wealth to the interior to contain political unrest.”

As China's economy slows, the process of creating and organizing an economic infrastructure to employ low-wage workers will be incremental.
The problem for China in the next decade are the political and social consequences of that shift.

The coastal region has been built on high growth rates and close ties with European and American consumers. As these decline, political and social challenges emerge.
At the same time, the expectation that the interior — beyond parts of the more urbanized Yangtze River Delta — will grow as rapidly as the coast is being dashed.

The problem for the next decade will be containing these difficulties.

China in the next decade:

growing dictatorial tendencies, a dictatorial state, a communist dictatorship
an anti-corruption campaign
centralize political and economic powers,
assert Party primacy over the military
consolidate previously fragmented industries like coal and steel
gradual and tepid implementation of market-oriented reforms in state-owned enterprises and in the banking sector
increased nationalism
more modest economic expectations

Less likely but still conceivable:
Political interests along the coast rebel against Beijing's policy of transferring wealth to the interior to contain political unrest.

China-Aktienindex:
Der SSE Composite Index (Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, CN:SHCOMP) ist der wichtigste Aktienindex auf dem Festland der Volksrepublik China. Er umfasst alle an der Shanghai Stock Exchange gelisteten Unternehmen (A- und B-Aktien):
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...579&mocktick=1 http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...579&mocktick=1

China-Aktienindex-Thread: https://www.ftor.de/tbb/showthread.php?t=39476

Währung: CNY/USD:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN

Staatsanleihen (2 willkürliche Beispiele):

China, People's Republic of .. YC-Bonds 2012(17), Fälligkeit 29.06.2017, Währung CNH, WKN: A1G63S:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN

China, People's Republic of .. YC-Bonds 2010(20), Fälligkeit 01.12.2020, Währung CNH, WKN: A1GS98:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN

8) Japan will be Asia’s rising naval power

China is building a state-of-the-art navy.
Up to 2015/2016 Japan depends on the United States to guarantee access to its supply routes.
However, if the US becomes more cautious regarding involvement in foreign ventures, and since the United States is not dependent on imports, the reliability of the United States is in question.

Result: Japan will project power into the region to counter China and protect its supply routes. The means is increasing its naval power in the coming years.

An old three-player game will emerge as a central, unsettled issue in the region:
Russia, the declining power, will increasingly lose the ability to protect its maritime interests.
The Chinese and the Japanese will both be interested in acquiring these and in preventing each other from having them.
Result: Sino-Japanese competition will increase.

Zitat:

Japan remains the most likely contender for the dominant position in East Asia, both because of its geography and because of its needs as a massive importer.

Nikkei 225:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN

Währung:
JPY/USD (1 Japanischer Yen kostet 0,01 US Dollar):
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN

Staatsanleihen:Basiswert: 10-Jahre Japanese Government Bond Future, Long darauf, ISIN DE000RBS0UU2, angezeigte Währung: €
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN

9) The South China Sea islands won’t start a war, but there’s a catch

CHINA CONDUCTS FIRST SUCCESSFUL HYPERSONIC AIRCRAFT TEST AS IT COMPETES WITH RUSSIA AND U.S. FOR MILITARY SUPREMACY
BY CRISTINA MAZA ON 8/8/18, https://www.newsweek.com/china-condu...russia-1062980

Zitat:

hypersonic aircraft. It could penetrate even the most advanced missile defense system, thanks to its ability to fly six times faster than the speed of sound.

Schallgeschwindigkeit in Luft: ~343 m/s; 6*343m/s=2058 m/sec;

Eine russische Avangard hypersonic glide" Rakete eines vergleichbaren Typs "said to be capable of traveling up to Mach 20", this "system is invulnerable to today's and prospective air defense and missile defense systems of a potential enemy.
Deren Geschwindigkeit: 20*343m/s=6860 m/sec = 6,86 km/s = 24.696 kmh
"invincible against existing and even upcoming defense systems"
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-test...strike-1271822

https://www.ftor.de/tbb/attachment.p...1&d=1547983597
----------------------------------------------------------
Trade Routes and Straits:
http://static2.businessinsider.com/i...nd-straits.jpg
The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative/Center for Strategic and International Studies

Over half of the world's commercial shipping passes through the waterways of the Indo-Pacific region. The Strait of Malacca, in particular, is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world:

The strait links the Indian and Pacific Oceans
carries approximately 25% of all traded goods.
carries approximately 25% of all oil that travels by sea.
At its narrowest point just south of Singapore, the Strait of Malacca is only 1.5 nautical miles wide
one of the world's most noteworthy strategic choke points

Trade Flows In Asia:
http://static3.businessinsider.com/i...ws-in-asia.jpg

Territorial Controls:
http://static1.businessinsider.com/i...l-controls.jpg

Source: Tensions in the South China Sea explained in 18 maps
by: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mar. 11, 2016, 10:41 AM, http://www.businessinsider.com/tensi...18-maps-2015-1
----------------------------------------------------------

Regional powers will decide that South China Sea island disputes aren’t worth a major military escalation.
But there will be symptoms of a volatile power dynamic.
China tells the USA to keep out of South China Sea disputes.
Russia, the declining power, will increasingly lose the ability to protect its maritime interests.
The Chinese and the Japanese will both be interested in acquiring these and in preventing each other from having them.

10) There will be 16 mini-Chinas

Sixteen emerging countries will benefit from the slowing down of China’s economy as entry-level manufacturing jobs (that China used to enjoy) will move to those countries with improving economic fortunes over the next decade as more manufacturing jobs arrive:

Mexico,
Nicaragua,
the Dominican Republic,
Peru,
Ethiopia,
Uganda,
Kenya,
Tanzania,
Bangladesh,
Myanmar,
Sri Lanka,
Laos,
Vietnam,
Cambodia,
the Philippines, and
Indonesia

Post-China Manufacturing (low-wage, high-growth, offering high rewards on risk capital).

Zitat:

No one country can replace China, but we have noted 16 countries with a total population of about 1.15 billion people where entry-level manufacturing has gone after leaving China.

http://hornaffairs.com/en/wp-content...s-of-china.jpg
Source of the one illustration above: Stratfor: Ethiopia, Kenya among China’s successors, Posted on Wednesday, August 7, 2013 @ 8:36 pm by HornAffairs, http://hornaffairs.com/en/2013/08/07...al-successors/

11) US power will decline

The United States will continue to be the major economic, political, and military power in the world. But the US will not take an active leadership role in solving the world’s problems.
These reasons will give the US the luxury of being able to insulate itself against the world’s crises:

A growing economy,
surging domestic-energy production,
declining exports
the safety of being in the most stable corner of the world

Zitat:

It will be a disorderly world, with a changing of the guard in many regions. The one constant will be the continued and maturing power of the United States — a power that will be much less visible and that will be utilized far less in the next decade.

S&P 500 INDEX:https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...&TYPE=MOUNTAIN

Währung:
US:DXY - U.S. Dollar Index:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...579&mocktick=1

Staatsanleihen:

BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...579&mocktick=1

BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...579&mocktick=1

FRANKLIN US GOVERNMENT FUND A (MDIS)
WKN: 971665, Chart unten ist in €:
Der Fonds investiert in Schuldtitel, die von der Regierung der USA und ihren Behörden emittiert oder verbürgt werden.
http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/la...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1 https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

Sources used (besides those mentioned above):

February 4, 2016, http://tribune.com.pk/story/1040198/...e-in-10-years/

Armin Rosen, Business Insider, Wednesday 3 February 2016, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a6851221.html

Europe Without the Union
Geopolitical Weekly, March 1, 2016, By Mark Fleming-Williams
https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/europe-without-union "<a href="https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/europe-without-union">Europe Without the Union</a> is republished with permission of Stratfor."

Stratfor Sample Article: Decade Forecast: 2015-2025, February 23, 2015
https://www.stratfor.com/
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.—known as Stratfor—is an American publisher and global intelligence company founded in 1996 in Austin, Texas.
Stratfor bills itself as a geopolitical intelligence and consulting firm, with revenues derived from subscriptions to its website and from corporate clients.
In October 2015, Stratfor raised $12-million in funding through a growth equity investment by Dallas-based Teakwood Capital.

Ökonom über die EU nach dem Brexit
Ex-ifo-Chef Sinn warnt: Sollte Deutschland das in der EU tun, ist es verloren
Dienstag, 05.07.2016, http://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/oe...d_5696842.html

Zitat:

Der frühere Chef des ifo-Instituts, Hans-Werner Sinn, hat angesichts des Brexit deutlich gemacht, dass es seiner Meinung nach im deutschen Interesse sei, den Maastrichter Vertrag zu verändern, weil ansonsten die mediterranen Länder Frankreich, Italien und Spanien zu viel Macht erhielten.

„Wir müssen den Maastrichter Vertrag im Sinne einer Veränderung kündigen, damit die Entscheidungskriterien angepasst werden", erklärte der Star-Ökonom in der Sendung "Unter den Linden" im Fernsehsender Phoenix und fügte als Erklärung hinzu, dass mit dem Austritt Großbritanniens die bislang geltende Sperrminorität der freihandelsorientierten Länder dahin sei. "Das ist nicht mehr das Europa, mit dem Deutschland groß geworden ist, das können wir nicht akzeptieren", so Sinn weiter.

########################

Quelle für unten: http://www.hanswernersinn.de/de/Interview_Euro_11072016

Zitat:

Für Deutschland dagegen kann der Ökonom nichts Positives finden: „Großbritannien ist der drittgrößte Absatzmarkt der deutschen Exportindustrie. Zudem werden sich auf EU-Ebene die Machtverhältnisse enorm verschieben, denn mit einem Brexit ändern sich die Entscheidungsregeln für Abstimmungen im Ministerrat.“ Durch eine sogenannte Sperrminorität können Beschlüsse im Ministerrat verhindert werden. Dazu müssen 45 Prozent der EU-Staaten beziehungsweise so viele Staaten, dass 35 Prozent der EU-Bevölkerung repräsentiert werden, gegen einen Beschluss stimmen. „Frankreich, Italien und Spanien kommen zusammen auf etwa 34 Prozent; England zusammen mit den Niederlanden, Österreich, Deutschland und Finnland auf 35 Prozent. Daher stammt auch die 35-Prozent-Regel.“ Das sei nun Vergangenheit: „Ohne die Briten kommt Deutschland mit den anderen Ländern nur noch auf 25 Prozent und Frankreich, Italien und Spanien auf 39 Prozent.“ Aus diesem Grund habe sich Frankreich auch nicht um einen Verbleib der Briten bemüht. TTIP, Ceta – sinnbildlich für Freihandel - seien damit gescheitert. „Dafür werden Staaten immer mehr in das wirtschaftliche Geschehen eingreifen.“ Das Ziel sei jedoch nicht etwa ein gemeinsamer Europäischer Staat, sondern eine „gemeinsame Europäische Kasse“, warnt Sinn.

Zitat:

Kurzgefasst: „Die Bedingungen unter denen Deutschland die DM aufgeben hat, werden mit Füßen getreten.“ Sinn rät daher, dass Deutschland eine Vertragsänderungskündigung anstrebt. „Die Bedeutungslosigkeit der Sperrminorität berechtigt dazu.“ Nach derselben Logik, wie die 35-Prozent-Schwelle festgelegt wurde, müsse die Schwelle nun auf 25 Prozent gesenkt werden. Neuverhandlungen über Abstimmungsregeln und Stimmgewichte im Ministerrat müssten jedoch sofort starten. „Wenn wir noch zehn Jahre warten ist das Geld weg. Eine Fiskalunion ist alles andere als das, was wir jetzt brauchen.“ Die EU müsse nach dem Pareto-Prinzip organisiert werden: „Es wird nur entschieden, was einige Länder besser stellt, ohne andere zu benachteiligen.“ Das garantiere Stabilität. Ein Zusammenschluss basierend auf Umverteilung und Risk-Sharing sorge dagegen ausschließlich für Instabilität

#############################

Wie genau stellt sich Hans Werner Sinn eine Änderungskündigung vor?

Der Maastrichter Vertrag: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/...91:FULL:DE:PDF

Darin tauchen die Worte Kündigung, kündigen, Austritt und austreten nicht auf!

Meint also Hans Werner Sinn eine Änderungskündigung im Sinne des EU-Vertrags (Vertrag über die Europäische Union) von Lissabon? Danach kann man aus der ganzen EU austreten. Der Artikel 50 regelt das Verfahren:

EU-Vertrag
Titel VI - Schlußbestimmungen (Art. 47 - 55)
Art. 50

(1) Jeder Mitgliedstaat kann im Einklang mit seinen verfassungsrechtlichen Vorschriften beschließen, aus der Union auszutreten.

(2) Ein Mitgliedstaat, der auszutreten beschließt, teilt dem Europäischen Rat seine Absicht mit. Auf der Grundlage der Leitlinien des Europäischen Rates handelt die Union mit diesem Staat ein Abkommen über die Einzelheiten des Austritts aus und schließt das Abkommen, wobei der Rahmen für die künftigen Beziehungen dieses Staates zur Union berücksichtigt wird. Das Abkommen wird nach Artikel 218 Absatz 3 des Vertrags über die Arbeitsweise der Europäischen Union ausgehandelt. Es wird vom Rat im Namen der Union geschlossen; der Rat beschließt mit qualifizierter Mehrheit nach Zustimmung des Europäischen Parlaments.

(3) Die Verträge finden auf den betroffenen Staat ab dem Tag des Inkrafttretens des Austrittsabkommens oder andernfalls zwei Jahre nach der in Absatz 2 genannten Mitteilung keine Anwendung mehr, es sei denn, der Europäische Rat beschließt im Einvernehmen mit dem betroffenen Mitgliedstaat einstimmig, diese Frist zu verlängern.

(4) Für die Zwecke der Absätze 2 und 3 nimmt das Mitglied des Europäischen Rates und des Rates, das den austretenden Mitgliedstaat vertritt, weder an den diesen Mitgliedstaat betreffenden Beratungen noch an der entsprechenden Beschlussfassung des Europäischen Rates oder des Rates teil.

Die qualifizierte Mehrheit bestimmt sich nach Artikel 238 Absatz 3 Buchstabe b des Vertrags über die Arbeitsweise der Europäischen Union.

(5) Ein Staat, der aus der Union ausgetreten ist und erneut Mitglied werden möchte, muss dies nach dem Verfahren des Artikels 49 beantragen.
Quelle: https://dejure.org/gesetze/EU/50.html

EU-Vertrag
Titel VI - Schlußbestimmungen (Art. 47 - 55)
Art. 49
(ex-Artikel 49 EUV)

Jeder europäische Staat, der die in Artikel 2 genannten Werte achtet und sich für ihre Förderung einsetzt, kann beantragen, Mitglied der Union zu werden. Das Europäische Parlament und die nationalen Parlamente werden über diesen Antrag unterrichtet. Der antragstellende Staat richtet seinen Antrag an den Rat; dieser beschließt einstimmig nach Anhörung der Kommission und nach Zustimmung des Europäischen Parlaments, das mit der Mehrheit seiner Mitglieder beschließt. Die vom Europäischen Rat vereinbarten Kriterien werden berücksichtigt.

Die Aufnahmebedingungen und die durch eine Aufnahme erforderlich werdenden Anpassungen der Verträge, auf denen die Union beruht, werden durch ein Abkommen zwischen den Mitgliedstaaten und dem antragstellenden Staat geregelt. Das Abkommen bedarf der Ratifikation durch alle Vertragsstaaten gemäß ihren verfassungsrechtlichen Vorschriften.
Quelle: https://dejure.org/gesetze/EU/49.html
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Das Verfahren "erst raus nach Art. 50, dann neu verhandeln insbesondere über Abstimmungsregeln und Stimmgewichte im Ministerrat, dann wieder rein nach Art. 49 auf Basis der neuen - genehmen - Spielregeln" hat offensichtliche Schwachpunkte:

Es dauert Jahre
Es könnte eine Lawine an "ich will auch was geändert haben"-Forderungen der übrigen Mitgliedsstaaten nach sich ziehen, was die Verhandlungen unendlich kompliziert und langwierig machen würde.
Deutschland könnte zwar u. U. den Austritt noch halbwegs "zügig" hinbekommen, wäre aber bei den Verhandlungen zum Wiedereintritts-Antrag beliebig durch andere Mitgliedsstaaten in Süd- und Osteuropa erpressbar, siehe Punkt 2.
Es könnte zu Nachahmer-Taten durch andere Mitgliedsstaaten kommen, die entweder nur raus wollen oder ebenfalls Änderungen mittels "raus-rein" verhandeln wollen.

Es sieht so aus, als würde Deutschland in jedem Fall verlieren:

Wenn Deutschland etwas tut und die Entscheidungskriterien im Maastrichter Vertrag - mit welchem Verfahren auch immer - ändern wollte im Sinne Hans Werner Sinn's, dann entstünde wohl ein Hexenkessel aus "ich auch"-Begehrlichkeitsänderungswünschen der übrigen Mitgliedsstaaten, der kaum noch zu managen und erfolgreich zum Vertragsabschluss zu bringen wäre, weil das alles in einer Zeit abliefe, in der die EU-skeptischen Parteien Zulauf erhalten und Fliekräfte durch das o.g. Geschehen befördert würden. Das könnte also die Auflösung der ganzen EU sogar beschleunigen - was Deutschland massiv schädigen würde.

Wenn Deutschland aber nichts tut und die Entscheidungskriterien im Maastrichter Vertrag so belässt, also die €-Transferunion von den nordeuropäischen Staaten in Richtung der Südländer als Dauerzustand akzeptiert, dann stellt sich nur noch eine Frage: Welcher Geldstrom ist größer:

Der von Nord nach Süd (Transferunion), die wettbewerbsschwachen südeuropäischen Staaten können diese Transfers durch die Mehrheitsverhältnisse dann unmittelbar beschließen, siehe Äußerungen von Hans Werner Sinn.
Der von Süd nach Nord bzw. der von alles Mitgliedsstaaten über Handelsbeziehungen insgesamt bewirkte Profit-€-Strom vor allem nach Deutschland: Deutschland vermag durch die eigene Wettbewerbsfähigkeit genug Mittel zu erwirtschaften insbesondere durch die freien Handelsbeziehungen mit den übrigen Mitgliedsstaaten (sofern die künftig noch Mittel dafür haben).

Vermutlich ist es für auf Zeit gewählte Politiker persönlich risikoärmer, wenn sie nichts tun. Bei der EU ist das Beharrungsvermögen ohnehin schier unbegrenzt.

Es könnte klammheimlich ein "Deal" herauskommen:

Solange die Transfers nicht die Größenordnung von Plünderungen annehmen. solange geht die Sache in Ordnung: Deutschland zahlt.
Kommt aber z. B. die Staatsverschuldung Italiens oder deren Bankensystem dazu, könnte der Deal kippen, weil Transfers in derartiger Höhe nicht mehr beim Wahlvolk politisch vertretbar wären.

Schlussfolgerung:
Es ändert sich nur dann etwas strukturell in Europa, wenn sich die politischen Verhältnisse im Schwerpunkt Europas - also in Deutschland - gravierend ändern. Das könnte z. B. dann der Fall sein, wenn das deutsche Wahlvolk das Gewühl bekommt, von den übrigen Mitgliedsstaaten völlig unfair ausgezehrt zu werden.