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China's Überschuldung wird gefährlich

Zitat:

Die private Verschuldung erreicht inzwischen fast 210 Prozent der jährlichen Wirtschaftsleistung. Zum Vergleich: In den USA liegt dieser Wert bei 146 Prozent. Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Verschuldung beläuft sich nach Schätzungen der US-Investmentbank Goldman Sachs auf 286 Prozent der Wirtschaftsleistung.

Die Situation an den Kreditmärkten ist bedenklich. Neukredite gehen nahezu vollständig in die Umschuldung alter Kredite. Die Unternehmen leiden unter akutem Liquiditätsmangel. 2014 nahmen sie rund 1500 Milliarden Dollar Schulden in Fremdwährungen auf, oft mit kurzen Laufzeiten. Ein Jahr zuvor lag dieser Wert noch bei nahezu null.

Quelle: Autor Frank Doll, 26. April 2015 http://www.wiwo.de/finanzen/boerse/r.../11649924.html
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China’s debt-to-GDP ratio of nearly 300% may grow to a ratio likely to balloon to 400% over the next few years.

Zitat:

“The problem is the credit story,” Chanos said. “China’s banking system is bloated and it’s basically taking on more and more leverage.”

Chanos declined to elaborate further when contacted for comments but he has been an unabashed critic of China’s debt-fueled economic growth and has been sounding alarm bells of possible hard landing for the world’s second largest economy for several years. A so-called hard landing can refer to a rapid economic slowdown that occurs typically as a government’s central bank is attempting to tighten fiscal policy and combat inflation.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why...ece-2015-05-22

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/...conomic-risks/

http://www.scmp.com/business/china-b...roperty-market
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May 22, 2015
China bets on expanding its way out of debt
Latest data show credit squeeze risks morphing into a credit crunch

Zitat:

Although Beijing has loosened monetary policy three times over the past six months, real interest rates are rising sharply as deflation bites. They climbed to 10.8 per cent in March, their highest level since the financial crisis. Nominal average lending rates are lower, at 6.6 per cent, but still anomalously high in a world in which some $2tn in bonds trade at negative yields.

Zitat:

The impact of such a tight credit environment becomes clear when the size of China’s total corporate debt service burden is calculated. Given that non-financial total corporate debt is estimated by McKinsey to amount to $12.5tn, Chinese companies are paying on a nominal basis some $812bn in interest payments each year. In real terms, this amounts to $1.35tn. This is not only significantly more than China’s projected total industrial profits this year; it is slightly bigger than the size of a large emerging economy such as Mexico.

Quelle: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cc5f404e-0...#ixzz3awX2yMEO

Zitat:

Evergrande Real Estate, einer der größten Entwickler des Landes, musste unlängst von Banken mit Notfallkrediten in Höhe von gut 16 Milliarden Dollar über Wasser gehalten werden. Das Unternehmen ist hoch verschuldet, vor allem im Ausland. Binnen fünf Jahren stieg die Verschuldung des Immobiliensektors um 280 Prozent.

Quelle: http://www.wiwo.de/finanzen/boerse/r.../11649924.html

Evergrande Real Estate Grp Ltd Registered Shares DL -,01, in €

http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/de...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/de...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/de...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/de...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

Sunac China Holdings Ltd. (China State Construction and real estate Company, one of the leading residential property developers in China. The company focuses on large-scale, medium to high-end property developments.)
WKN: A0YF8N

http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/de...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

http://charts.comdirect.de/charts/de...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

Das ist China aber nicht alleine bei der Überschuldung.

Rech aufschlussreicher Artikel. ;)
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/wir...a-1048209.html

China Debt Problem Is Massive At $35 Trillion, On Par With Greece
By Mark Melin • on April 8, 2017 , http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/chinese-debt-collapse/

Zitat:

China is the key to the world economy, a Macquarie Research report points out. In fact, it is the only country that can reflate the world economy. With a debt to GDP pegged at near 300%, the report notes that China can do the impossible in part due to their unique economic structure – they don’t have a central bank amid the world where public and private divisions are much less pronounced than in the US. But with growth targets being reigned in, watch for stagflation and even deflation.

Zitat:

China is responsible for 27% of global investment and nearly 66% of global credit creation, and the world is “addicted” to Chinese money. Shvets and Seth think the “key” to the reflation trade is found in China’s stimulus, which drove real estate and industrial development. This, in turn, drove commodity prices significantly higher.

http://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/...-5-10_orig.jpg

Zitat:

For example, China’s non-financial corporates maintain debt to GDP of ~170% (double levels prevalent in the US), but at least 70% of that debt belongs to SOE sectors. If one then adds 50%-60% debt to GDP that is directly attributable to national and provincial Governments (inclusive of LGF’s, various ministries and bank bail-out bonds) and another 60%+ that belongs to the banking sector, then Government directly or indirectly responsible for around 230-240% debt to GDP (or on par with Greece), with ‘real private sector’ remaining significantly under leveraged.

Zitat:

Watch China to understand the health of the world economy. Macquarie is looking for a stagflationary fear http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/eur...-macro-voices/ to grip over “the next several months,” and then “disinflation” http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/03/chi...-system-crash/ could rear its ugly head again. For an investment outlook, they prefer “local, liquid and low external vulnerability markets.”

Echoing Jim Chanos among others, the report also compares the country to Japan in the 1980s and likens the country to a “squirrel in wheel unable to stop”.

The Threat Of A Chinese Financial Crisis Is Growing
By Rupert Hargreaves • on December 19, 2016 , http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/12/chi...ancial-crisis/

Zitat:

Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that China is living on borrowed time. The significant sell-off in China’s bond market post-Fed rate hike has led to market concerns of a liquidity crunch within the country. The People’s Bank of China injected Rmb 205 billion into the country’s credit markets between December 13 and December 15 in an attempt to loosen credit conditions after a broad-based sell-off in China’s bond market which saw yields spike. In particular, the 10Y government bond yield jumped 22bp to 3.45%, the highest level since August 2015.

http://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/...morgan-1-2.png

Zitat:

The Federal Reserve’s decision to hike interest rate isn’t the only factor sending jitters through China’s bond market. As well as higher US interest rates, the People’s Bank of China has also been attempting to curb leverage in the bond market by tightening wholesale funding rates. At the same time, Chinese banks/insurance companies have been conducting their year-end asset rotation, which this year entails the shift away from bonds due to the expectation of further tightening from the country’s central bank. Further, China’s bond investors have become increasingly cautious since the Rmb 500 million bond default by Hualong Securities on December 13, as well as market concerns of a possible bond default by Guohai Securities.

China, People's Republic of .. YC-Bonds 2010(20)Fälligkeit 01.12.2020
Ausgabedatum 01.12.2010
Anleihe-Rating Aa3
Emittenten-Rating Aa3
Nominalzinssatz 2,480%
Rendite p.a. 4,389%
ISIN HK0000073004
WKN A1GS98
Börse Frankfurt:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1 https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...NGS=1&SHOWHL=1

China Property Buyers Are Loading Up On Easy Credit In Order Not “To Miss Out”
By Rupert Hargreaves • on October 28, 2016 , http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/10/china-property-craze/

Zitat:

Trying to understand China’s various asset bubbles is a full-time job. The latest bubble has emerged in the China property market where some regions have reported home price growth of 50% year-on-year.
http://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/...s-China-10.jpg