Traderboersenboard - Der Dollar-Index

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- - Der Dollar-Index (http://www.f-tor.de/tbb/showthread.php?t=41354)

Der Dollar-Index

Es gibt drei Dollar Indices:
Den U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), siehe Posting 1

den Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad, Goods (DTWEXB), siehe Posting 2 sowie

den Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index, siehe Posting 3

Ersterer wird in Posting 1 + 2 betrachtet, letzterer in Posting 3.

Zuerst also der U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):

all data:
https://www.ftor.de/tbb/attachment.p...1&d=1633469987
https://api.wsj.net/api/kaavio/chart...045&mocktick=1

10y:
https://api.wsj.net/api/kaavio/chart...045&mocktick=1

3y:
https://api.wsj.net/api/kaavio/chart...045&mocktick=1
1y:
https://api.wsj.net/api/kaavio/chart...045&mocktick=1
3m:
https://api.wsj.net/api/kaavio/chart...045&mocktick=1
10d:
https://api.wsj.net/api/kaavio/chart...720&mocktick=1

Der U.S. Dollar Index wurde im März 1973 eingeführt und auf einen Wert von 100 gesetzt. Der Index stellt einen vergleichenden Korb mit den folgenden Währungen dar:

Euro (57,6 Prozent),
japanischer Yen (13,6 Prozent),
das britische Pfund (11,9 Prozent),
der kanadische Dollar (9,1 Prozent),
die schwedische Krone (4,2 Prozent) sowie
der Schweizer Franken (3,6 Prozent).

Hebel 11,28
Spread 0,36 %, 0,03€
Knock Out 107,7010
Abstand zum Knock Out 7,71 %
Emittent BNP Paribas

.....................zum KO-Monitoring:......................
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...579&mocktick=1
https://www.derivate.bnpparibas.com/...0/de000pz69px5

.....................oben zum KO-Monitoring:......................

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...ITH_EARNINGS=1

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...ITH_EARNINGS=1

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...ITH_EARNINGS=1

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...ITH_EARNINGS=1

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...ITH_EARNINGS=1

https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...ITH_EARNINGS=1

++++++++++++++++++++++++
Longs:
PZ7ZFR
https://www.derivate.bnpparibas.com/...8&ProductTypes[0].IsSelected=true&ProductTypes[0].ID=23&IsLongDirection=True
Hebel 5,38

PZ7ZFS , Hebel 7,92, https://www.derivate.bnpparibas.com/...8&ProductTypes[0].IsSelected=true&ProductTypes[0].ID=23&IsLongDirection=True

Angehängt Dollar-Index-Longs, alles Stand 25.06.21
fini

Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad, Goods (DTWEXB)

Der Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (auch bekannt als „The Broad Index“) ist eine Kennzahl, welche den Wert des US-Dollars mittels eines Währungskorbs aus 26 Währungen vergleicht. Der Index ist der handelsgewichtete Durchschnitt im Vergleich zu diesen Währungen. Er wurde 1998 von der US-Notenbank (FED) erstmals veröffentlicht.

Der Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (The Broad Index) enthält 26 verschiedene Währungen, deren Tabelle (Stand 18. April 2011) ist unter dem folgenden Link ersichtlich:
Quelle: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_...S_Dollar_Index

Die "Total Trade Weights" sind hier zu sehen: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H10/Weights/

Der aktuelle Chart:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXB?cid=105
https://ycharts.com/indicators/trade...ar_index_broad
https://uk.tradingview.com/symbols/FRED-DTWEXM/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TWEXB

Unten der Chart (Quelle https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TWEXB )
vom 4. Januar 1995 bis 25. September 2019:

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (USDOLLAR) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of four currencies, all having 25% weight each:

the Euro,
the British Pound,
the Japanese Yen, and
the Australian Dollar.

On its inception, January 1, 2011, USDOLLAR began with a value of 10,000.
Quelle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jo...M_Dollar_Index

Ich gehe davon aus, dass der US-Dollar seit seinem Hoch am 19.03.2020 um 23 Uhr (im Nachthandel unserer Zeit) längerfristig - über Jahre - abwerten wird. :deal: :cool:

Für charttechnisch lesekundige steht die Ableitung dieser Aussagen oben.
Einen Short auf den Dollar-Index nannte ich oben bereits.

>1,0850 + über der Trendlinie (siehe angehängten Chart ganz unten, aktuell bei >1,0865) kann man einen Long starten.
Zum Check:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...ITH_EARNINGS=1

A dollar crash is virtually inevitable, Asia expert Stephen Roach warns
PUBLISHED MON, JUN 15 2020
by Stephanie Landsman, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/doll...ach-warns.html

Zitat:

Stephen Roach, one of the world’s leading authorities on Asia, is worried a changing global landscape paired with a massive U.S. budget deficit will spark a dollar crash.

“The U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely

a very low domestic savings rate and
a chronic current account deficit,”

the former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday. “The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply.”

His forecast calls for a 35% drop against other major currencies.

“These problems are going from bad to worse as we blow out the fiscal deficit in the years ahead,” said Roach, a Yale University senior fellow.

The U.S. Dollar Currency Index is up more than one percent over the past two weeks and is relatively flat so far this year. But Roach believes it’s no time to get complacent.

“The national savings rate is probably going to go deeper into negative territory than it has ever done for the United States or any leading economy in economic history,” he said.

Roach contends other forces are at play, too.

‘Lethal combination’

“At the same time, America is walking away from globalization and is focused on decoupling itself from the rest of the world,” said Roach. “That’s a lethal combination.”

The big question: Will it happen quickly or gradually?

His timeline is rough — over the next year or two, maybe more. However, Roach suggests a crash virtually inevitable, and it’s a risk investors shouldn’t ignore.

“Generally, it’s a negative implication for U.S. financial assets,” he added. “It points to the probability of higher inflation as we import more higher cost foreign goods from overseas, and that’s a negative for interest rates.”

He’s concerned a crash could spark a late 1970s-type stagflation crisis, when prices rose sharply while economic growth was muted. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/mark...tephen%20Roach

According to Roach, not even a leadership change in Washington in November would be able to move the needle much — especially as lawmakers try to battle the economic impact from the coronavirus crisis with unprecedented stimulus measures.

“Policymakers to their credit have never had to deal with anything close to this disruption,” Roach said.

A Stronger U.S. Dollar Will Crush The Reflation Trade
By Michael Kramer, Mar 26, 2021, https://www.investing.com/analysis/a...rade-200569663

Zitat:

The dollar’s gains have come as rates in the US have risen sharply in recent weeks as the prospect for better growth takes shape in the US, even while parts of Europe struggle to recover from the coronavirus pandemic. Thus, commodities prices have been hit hard, as they are negatively affected by the strong US currency and worries of weaker growth hurting demand.

Zitat:

This weakness has found its way into the reflation trade, with sectors like Energy, Industrials, and Materials seeing weakness this week. If the dollar continues to strengthen and global growth concerns persist, it could signal the end of the reflation trade.

Zitat:

Additionally, emerging markets have been hit hard in recent trading sessions due to the stronger dollar.

Zitat:

There is potentially a bearish pattern forming in the EEM ETF, known as a head and shoulders pattern.

{EEM ETF = iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:EEM)}

Zitat:

Banks May Falter Too
The bank stocks have also come under pressure. This despite yields stabilizing at higher levels and spreads widening. The group has rocketed higher, and at least over the short-term, is trading well ahead of itself.

Just this past week there have been increases in the put position for the Financial Select Sector

Zitat:

Reflation Trade Finished?
If the dollar continues to strengthen, it will further weaken the reflation trade, causing a ripple effect through different parts of the equity market. Coupled with higher interest rates that have negatively impacted the technology sector too, the equity market could find itself in trouble.

If rates begin to ease and the dollar drops, it will allow for the reflation trade to resume, pushing stocks in those sectors to even higher levels. But in the absence of a reversal of the dollar or interest rates, the reflation trade could be over. That is likely to be terrible news for the rest of the equity market.

the Euro,
the British Pound,
the Japanese Yen, and
the Australian Dollar.

On its inception, January 1, 2011, USDOLLAR began with a value of 10,000.
Quelle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jo...M_Dollar_Index
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Link zum akt. Chart: https://de.investing.com/indices/dj-fxcm-dollar-chart
https://www.onvista.de/index/DOW-JON...Index-45527910
https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/...s=USDOLLAR:DJI

Intraday:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...ITH_EARNINGS=1
https://www.ftor.de/tbb/attachment.p...1&d=1622822228
https://www.ftor.de/tbb/attachment.p...1&d=1622822032

Der erste angehängte Chart gibt mit der blauen a-b-c-Zählung den Takt vor,

mit der c evtl. bei ca. 12240 in Q4 von 2021.
Danach runter zum finalen Tief bei etwa 11567 oder noch etwas tiefer.
Danach dann ewig lange rauf...siehe den angehängten 5-Jahres-Chart, der unten rechts im roten Kästchen diese oben genannte "a-b-c rauf" andeutet, dort gefolgt von der finalen Linie runter zum "echten" Tief etwa zum Jahreswechsel 2021/2022. Mal schauen, ob's so kommt ;)

Wenn der Dollar abwertet (sinkt), dann steigt Eur/USD.

Hier nun entsprechend ein Long auf EUR/USD:
WKN: PZ27GP ISIN: DE000PZ27GP8, endlos
Stand 04.06.21:
Hebel 8,37
Das heute 04.06.21 unten berührte Bollinger-Band (und eine Wellenüberschneidung in den letzten paar Tagen) sagt gerade: Es soll nun bei EUR/USD schön allmählich rauf gehen! Und zwar bis etwa Jahreswechsel 2021/2022. ;)
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...ITH_EARNINGS=1
2m:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...ITH_EARNINGS=1
14d:
https://charts.comdirect.de/charts/r...ITH_EARNINGS=1

Quelle: ISABELNET
@ISABELNET_SA
25. Juni 2021, https://twitter.com/ISABELNET_SA/sta...916034569?s=03

🇺🇸 10Y Yield and Dollar

Zitat:

So far, the 10-year yield and the dollar continue to follow the historical pattern after global recoveries

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E4uYnuXX...g&name=900x900

Diese Sicht der Dinge
https://www.ftor.de/tbb/attachment.p...1&d=1633469987
äußert grundsätzlich auch Jeffrey Gundlach
in diesem Video vom 10.09.2021, wobei er eine noch weiter gehende technische Erholung des Dollar (bis an die obere Trendlinie?) nicht ausschließt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9O_Nmq7pHc